{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8396b223-19de-4b68-9905-ddc6b36cdde1", "symbol": "UCO", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST II ULTA BLOMBERG CRUD OIL(POST REV SPLT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.193, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.981, "architecture_energy": 20.164, "architecture_maturity": 39.262, "architecture_confidence": 66.236, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.94, "rotation_up": 48.91, "upward_expansion": 59.85, "deceleration": 67.73, "rotation_down": 14.73, "downward_expansion": 16.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.676, 38.372, 40.107238, 39.455935 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 37.0, "trend_reference": 36.611333, "distance_from_trend": 0.010616, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.848397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282567, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.693695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.611498, "excess_performance": 0.485873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010616, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202817, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282567, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.106937, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.429897, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.611498, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.663887, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14486815, "relative_activity": 0.593322, "balance": 0.663887, "dry_up": 0.699377, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152204, "annualized_volatility": 0.731242, "from_high_reference": -0.301096, "from_low_reference": 1.041943 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.611333, "fair_value_reference": 28.848397, "structural_low": 21.96, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.077463, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.045863, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.290913, "worst_return": -0.14202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.068837, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.095583, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.682499, "worst_return": -0.144307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.054884, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.183556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.753295, "worst_return": -0.237829, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058502, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095678, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114204, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.355545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115884, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016272, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"activity_lines": [ 36.151333, 38.038545, 40.292429, 38.459441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.93, "volume": 14532627, "typical_volume": 34612022.35, "trend": 35.342667, "fair_value": 28.753141, "relative_strength": 39.180837, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.079245, "energy": 16.663251, "activity_lines": [ 38.988, 38.665091, 40.595238, 39.066925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.42, "volume": 18031529, "typical_volume": 27469222.0, "trend": 36.047667, "fair_value": 28.812756, "relative_strength": 25.849683, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.891188, "energy": 19.836102, "activity_lines": [ 40.168667, 38.767455, 40.514476, 39.394495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.0, "volume": 14486815, "typical_volume": 24416457.0, "trend": 36.611333, "fair_value": 28.848397, "relative_strength": 10.693695, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.980626, "energy": 20.164299, "activity_lines": [ 39.676, 38.372, 40.107238, 39.455935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }