{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "839a02a7-c35d-41c9-8e7b-d74fa54126d4",
    "symbol": "FLS",
    "name": "Flowserve Corporation",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 75.364,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -1.665,
    "architecture_energy": 4.27,
    "architecture_maturity": 11.097,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.112,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 66.26,
        "rotation_up": 27.76,
        "upward_expansion": 26.51,
        "deceleration": 40.54,
        "rotation_down": 27.8,
        "downward_expansion": 50.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        75.220667,
        74.362817,
        74.212864,
        75.111352
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 79.95,
    "trend_reference": 76.682697,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.042608,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 54.641572,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.463172,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.660444,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.061622,
    "excess_performance": -0.187247,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042608,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019025,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.463172,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.084858,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016604,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03506,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.061622,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.256211,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8736253,
      "relative_activity": 0.813813,
      "balance": 1.256211,
      "dry_up": 0.934864,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.081579,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.475457,
      "from_high_reference": -0.132196,
      "from_low_reference": 0.651219
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 76.682697,
      "fair_value_reference": 54.641572,
      "structural_low": 63.078747,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.055209,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.636364,
        "median_excess_return": 0.060158,
        "regime_survival": 0.363636,
        "best_return": 0.329111,
        "worst_return": -0.178166,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.12583,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.045267,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.531727,
        "worst_return": -0.054686,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.194562,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.151402,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.551637,
        "worst_return": 0.040193,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.139586,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.075403,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.150765,
        "worst_return": 0.128407,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.121048,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.16923,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.155866,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.158629,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.020666,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.028699,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.124054,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.091716,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.08864,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.049586,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 10413969.1,
        "trend": 76.224552,
        "fair_value": 53.888223,
        "relative_strength": -8.604945,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 48.547562,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 72.4,
        "volume": 10492394,
        "typical_volume": 10526701.3,
        "trend": 76.277416,
        "fair_value": 54.124221,
        "relative_strength": -2.993226,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -50.719619,
        "energy": 45.218021,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.968,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 75.99,
        "volume": 13235083,
        "typical_volume": 10748328.6,
        "trend": 76.459252,
        "fair_value": 54.371277,
        "relative_strength": 0.425583,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.780173,
        "energy": 29.295364,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 79.95,
        "volume": 8736253,
        "typical_volume": 10734968.4,
        "trend": 76.682697,
        "fair_value": 54.641572,
        "relative_strength": 1.660444,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -1.664774,
        "energy": 4.269568,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}