{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83a24f78-2d2e-400c-afb2-aafc8dc5604e", "symbol": "605033", "name": "Shaanxi Meibang Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.898, "architecture_energy": 43.57, "architecture_maturity": 66.486, "architecture_confidence": 63.994, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.98, "rotation_up": 24.95, "upward_expansion": 18.25, "deceleration": 66.95, "rotation_down": 45.58, "downward_expansion": 68.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.716667, 17.704452, 18.956211, 19.995995 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.82, "trend_reference": 21.013811, "distance_from_trend": -0.151986, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.765904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.902664, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.151832, "excess_performance": -0.108629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151986, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045602, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30693, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135821, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151832, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.191835, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24290478, "relative_activity": 2.234896, "balance": 0.191835, "dry_up": 1.394092, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090557, "annualized_volatility": 0.581663, "from_high_reference": -0.486307, "from_low_reference": 0.127135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.013811, "fair_value_reference": 17.765904, "structural_low": 15.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.017921, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.014636, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.1829, "worst_return": -0.124245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.112262, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.006694, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.162142, "worst_return": -0.239293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050904, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010664, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.73668, "worst_return": -0.13496, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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21.19673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.370001, "volume": 8838300, "typical_volume": 15576535.4, "trend": 21.351478, "fair_value": 17.792369, "relative_strength": -20.844465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.718114, "energy": 88.586249, "activity_lines": [ 17.684614, 18.58942, 20.199531, 20.931795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.1, "volume": 8616356, "typical_volume": 12702168.7, "trend": 21.211811, "fair_value": 17.784824, "relative_strength": -17.010335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.445944, "energy": 82.740595, "activity_lines": [ 17.423334, 18.127829, 19.793939, 20.657506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.280001, "volume": 9660600, "typical_volume": 11075989.75, "trend": 21.112478, "fair_value": 17.76914, "relative_strength": -21.384333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.138483, "energy": 69.330511, "activity_lines": [ 17.006001, 17.627261, 19.347395, 20.339325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.059999, "volume": 18040569, "typical_volume": 10645512.35, "trend": 21.089144, "fair_value": 17.770525, "relative_strength": -7.996965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.672919, "energy": 54.104059, "activity_lines": [ 17.637333, 17.754095, 19.200565, 20.206907 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.82, "volume": 24290478, "typical_volume": 10868726.25, "trend": 21.013811, "fair_value": 17.765904, "relative_strength": -15.902664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.897999, "energy": 43.569959, "activity_lines": [ 17.716667, 17.704452, 18.956211, 19.995995 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }