{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83a26e0b-1fd0-4107-88bc-16c026421034", "symbol": "SPFF", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS GLOBAL X SUPERINCOME PFD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.411, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.543, "architecture_energy": 20.269, "architecture_maturity": 29.924, "architecture_confidence": 76.365, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.44, "rotation_up": 33.88, "upward_expansion": 60.28, "deceleration": 84.04, "rotation_down": 25.82, "downward_expansion": 14.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.344696, 9.340714, 9.34831, 9.26904 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.4358, "trend_reference": 9.198944, "distance_from_trend": 0.025748, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.442176, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117698, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.378228, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035801, "excess_performance": -0.089824, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012918, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117698, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021081, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035801, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.128131, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 317978, "relative_activity": 1.181488, "balance": 1.128131, "dry_up": 0.886288, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021676, "annualized_volatility": 0.105357, "from_high_reference": -0.028801, "from_low_reference": 0.101875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.198944, "fair_value_reference": 8.442176, "structural_low": 8.647827, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.002204, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.000186, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.053981, "worst_return": -0.052732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023299, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.057697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054596, "worst_return": -0.013627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018332, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122319, "worst_return": -0.089345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0454, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011236, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002396, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.677361, "energy": 24.638412, "activity_lines": [ 9.303373, 9.365681, 9.312087, 9.240449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.243192, "volume": 254119, "typical_volume": 261938.85, "trend": 9.190214, "fair_value": 8.41718, "relative_strength": -5.470866, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.845089, "energy": 20.192286, "activity_lines": [ 9.273377, 9.339256, 9.317126, 9.24399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.338667, "volume": 240338, "typical_volume": 263896.25, "trend": 9.195978, "fair_value": 8.429274, "relative_strength": -5.329835, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.799899, "energy": 15.640422, "activity_lines": [ 9.295431, 9.331125, 9.329527, 9.253567 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.4358, "volume": 317978, "typical_volume": 269133.6, "trend": 9.198944, "fair_value": 8.442176, "relative_strength": -7.378228, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.542921, "energy": 20.269379, "activity_lines": [ 9.344696, 9.340714, 9.34831, 9.26904 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }