{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83acd9dd-8426-4778-8be3-bb3e42047b77", "symbol": "GOOS", "name": "Canada Goose Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.309, "architecture_energy": 69.873, "architecture_maturity": 66.27, "architecture_confidence": 89.231, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 15.24, "upward_expansion": 14.37, "deceleration": 39.81, "rotation_down": 67.48, "downward_expansion": 87.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.668667, 13.056364, 13.621143, 14.103763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.2, "trend_reference": 14.848667, "distance_from_trend": -0.178377, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.959615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.235571, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.057175, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207277, "excess_performance": -0.327699, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178377, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098223, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.235571, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.340572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187332, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207277, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.733028, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1557300, "relative_activity": 2.946753, "balance": 0.733028, "dry_up": 1.672958, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082156, "annualized_volatility": 0.426762, "from_high_reference": -0.426692, "from_low_reference": 0.018364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.848667, "fair_value_reference": 15.959615, "structural_low": 11.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.012775, "positive_rate": 0.513514, "directional_follow_through": 0.486486, "median_excess_return": -0.008295, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.294168, "worst_return": -0.167789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.023964, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.046697, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.309387, "worst_return": -0.28623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029808, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.088631, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.593092, "worst_return": -0.343878, 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124559, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024131, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159106, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", 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13.722182, 14.266143, 14.762946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.79, "volume": 499000, "typical_volume": 443860.0, "trend": 15.417667, "fair_value": 16.16359, "relative_strength": -25.359756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.963476, "energy": 39.860368, "activity_lines": [ 13.662, 13.696909, 14.18281, 14.649376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.54, "volume": 710200, "typical_volume": 452250.0, "trend": 15.255333, "fair_value": 16.089487, "relative_strength": -31.419007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.8499, "energy": 49.608686, "activity_lines": [ 13.300667, 13.490364, 13.994762, 14.46372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.53, "volume": 770000, "typical_volume": 471855.0, "trend": 15.054, "fair_value": 16.026218, "relative_strength": -30.628343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.741594, "energy": 53.619755, "activity_lines": [ 13.002, 13.294, 13.818381, 14.287892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.2, "volume": 1557300, "typical_volume": 528480.0, "trend": 14.848667, "fair_value": 15.959615, "relative_strength": -34.057175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.309155, "energy": 69.872581, "activity_lines": [ 12.668667, 13.056364, 13.621143, 14.103763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }