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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.86, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.453, "architecture_energy": 88.102, "architecture_maturity": 45.729, "architecture_confidence": 91.406, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.42, "rotation_up": 59.41, "upward_expansion": 97.61, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 29.72, "downward_expansion": 21.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 6489.785352, 6464.808106, 6390.515937, 6267.793323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6492.77002, "trend_reference": 6130.40127, "distance_from_trend": 0.05911, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5213.100608, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.560557, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108704, "excess_performance": 0.163371, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05911, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01392, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.245472, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035606, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0885, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108704, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.142857, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 11.142857, "dry_up": 0.054045, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008602, "annualized_volatility": 0.132575, "from_high_reference": -0.002493, "from_low_reference": 0.147428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6130.40127, "fair_value_reference": 5213.100608, "structural_low": 5658.543945, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.010334, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.0005, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.078095, "worst_return": -0.050748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027395, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.018381, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.132656, "worst_return": -0.088101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.160224, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.089724, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.223306, "worst_return": -0.228829, "sufficient": true 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6450.489418, 6334.126332, 6218.84984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6492.77002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 152.65, "trend": 6119.61735, "fair_value": 5194.105006, "relative_strength": 3.486407, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.511122, "energy": 82.552572, "activity_lines": [ 6480.376009, 6458.359579, 6363.842434, 6243.718957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6492.77002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 152.65, "trend": 6130.40127, "fair_value": 5213.100608, "relative_strength": 3.560557, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.452939, "energy": 88.101812, "activity_lines": [ 6489.785352, 6464.808106, 6390.515937, 6267.793323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }