{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83b590d0-4425-46c0-b8b0-6eca04a111f2", "symbol": "300963", "name": "Shanghai Zhongzhou Special Alloy Materials Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.592, "architecture_energy": 65.09, "architecture_maturity": 71.6, "architecture_confidence": 90.029, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 19.68, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.02, "rotation_down": 64.44, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.493781, 12.005861, 13.441196, 14.736774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.2, "trend_reference": 16.655963, "distance_from_trend": -0.26753, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.46001, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064571, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.655403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.384149, "excess_performance": -0.391549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.26753, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137667, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064571, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.540502, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.356554, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055101, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.384149, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.758399, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149204514, "relative_activity": 3.459438, "balance": 0.758399, "dry_up": 1.701897, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118174, "annualized_volatility": 0.522092, "from_high_reference": -0.556364, "from_low_reference": 0.229839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.655963, "fair_value_reference": 11.46001, "structural_low": 9.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.024005, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.063476, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.174897, "worst_return": -0.16924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.135259, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.054963, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.293906, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.310406, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.323568, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.343728, "worst_return": 0.277083, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 44900664.05, "trend": 17.645629, "fair_value": 11.37303, "relative_strength": -43.355129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.00768, "energy": 87.427842, "activity_lines": [ 12.116972, 13.049982, 14.571418, 15.869885 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.58, "volume": 46290294, "typical_volume": 42211421.35, "trend": 17.275629, "fair_value": 11.396146, "relative_strength": -43.573477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.369907, "energy": 86.179822, "activity_lines": [ 11.438379, 12.436002, 14.065662, 15.414038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.52, "volume": 58819330, "typical_volume": 39372279.05, "trend": 16.941963, "fair_value": 11.42532, "relative_strength": -36.8156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.902248, "energy": 70.974592, "activity_lines": [ 11.317121, 12.117477, 13.696429, 15.042707 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.2, "volume": 149204514, "typical_volume": 43129702.3, "trend": 16.655963, "fair_value": 11.46001, "relative_strength": -35.655403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.591945, "energy": 65.08995, "activity_lines": [ 11.493781, 12.005861, 13.441196, 14.736774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }