{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83b9cc53-7639-48ea-a5ab-b4577313475f", "symbol": "WPB", "name": "Wiener Privatbank SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.08, "architecture_energy": 75.988, "architecture_maturity": 45.598, "architecture_confidence": 66.089, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 84.43, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 58.96, "rotation_down": 10.09, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.96, 13.510909, 12.661905, 12.133763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.5, "trend_reference": 11.55, "distance_from_trend": 0.255411, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.160897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.776765, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.171288, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.380952, "excess_performance": 0.206706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.255411, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.776765, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.351134, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.111713, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142289, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.380952, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.633803, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 655, "relative_activity": 1.514976, "balance": 14.633803, "dry_up": 1.692495, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033952, "annualized_volatility": 0.272618, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.779141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.55, "fair_value_reference": 8.160897, "structural_low": 10.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.008877, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.001511, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.168539, "worst_return": -0.09396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.033754, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003892, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.251534, "worst_return": -0.071856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041409, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0539, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.213483, "worst_return": -0.087473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051095, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065868, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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[ 12.933333, 12.509091, 11.791429, 11.474839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.0, "volume": 361, "typical_volume": 357.5, "trend": 11.216667, "fair_value": 8.015064, "relative_strength": 5.249618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.40512, "energy": 87.887385, "activity_lines": [ 13.0, 12.676364, 11.948571, 11.595699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.3, "volume": 1361, "typical_volume": 425.55, "trend": 11.31, "fair_value": 8.058333, "relative_strength": 5.925751, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.843842, "energy": 71.966164, "activity_lines": [ 13.1, 12.86, 12.124286, 11.730108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.5, "volume": 550, "typical_volume": 425.3, "trend": 11.433333, "fair_value": 8.109615, "relative_strength": 15.036231, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.446411, "energy": 77.342505, "activity_lines": [ 13.58, 13.22, 12.402857, 11.935914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.5, "volume": 655, "typical_volume": 432.35, "trend": 11.55, "fair_value": 8.160897, "relative_strength": 11.171288, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.079669, "energy": 75.987615, "activity_lines": [ 13.96, 13.510909, 12.661905, 12.133763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }