{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83c50cf4-4e6f-4edf-872c-43788262ae4b", "symbol": "RSPR", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR S&P 500 EQL WGT REAL ESTATE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.732, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.141, "architecture_energy": 38.57, "architecture_maturity": 46.444, "architecture_confidence": 60.071, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.44, "rotation_up": 46.19, "upward_expansion": 75.89, "deceleration": 65.53, "rotation_down": 23.94, "downward_expansion": 4.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.073527, 37.024809, 36.552177, 36.026732 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.8541, "trend_reference": 35.453812, "distance_from_trend": 0.039496, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.059874, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.114768, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.650038, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.067806, "excess_performance": -0.057819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039496, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035997, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.114768, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010377, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0565, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015919, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067806, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.634316, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42108, "relative_activity": 0.569225, "balance": 1.634316, "dry_up": 0.801931, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031663, "annualized_volatility": 0.167774, "from_high_reference": -0.03041, "from_low_reference": 0.137121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.453812, "fair_value_reference": 33.059874, "structural_low": 32.41, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.001596, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.010692, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.081203, "worst_return": -0.104621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00117, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031497, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.117749, "worst_return": -0.07069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008162, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.046372, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.108057, "worst_return": -0.164883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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52.528978, "activity_lines": [ 37.014935, 36.782355, 36.114203, 35.659461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.4202, "volume": 100870, "typical_volume": 73358.85, "trend": 35.218749, "fair_value": 32.957797, "relative_strength": -0.177308, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.257266, "energy": 47.59034, "activity_lines": [ 37.198147, 36.956412, 36.303238, 35.810061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.0665, "volume": 36922, "typical_volume": 73228.55, "trend": 35.343452, "fair_value": 33.009731, "relative_strength": -1.993067, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.631948, "energy": 41.207422, "activity_lines": [ 37.157453, 37.019572, 36.445456, 35.929271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.8541, "volume": 42108, "typical_volume": 73974.3, "trend": 35.453812, "fair_value": 33.059874, "relative_strength": -5.650038, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.140866, "energy": 38.569872, "activity_lines": [ 37.073527, 37.024809, 36.552177, 36.026732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }