{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83cad401-beb2-4f4d-88d9-7f481cb6abbe", "symbol": "ADLU", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II Bloomberg US Treasury 25Y+ UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.566, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.875, "architecture_energy": 57.045, "architecture_maturity": 8.283, "architecture_confidence": 61.338, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.42, "rotation_up": 10.73, "upward_expansion": 8.4, "deceleration": 48.58, "rotation_down": 74.58, "downward_expansion": 77.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.150967, 8.246845, 8.253214, 8.264399 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.085, "trend_reference": 8.269283, "distance_from_trend": -0.022285, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.439653, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.574082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008584, "excess_performance": -0.179475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022285, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002583, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.042022, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007248, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008584, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.050749, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12474, "relative_activity": 3.371625, "balance": 1.050749, "dry_up": 1.344568, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012621, "annualized_volatility": 0.088896, "from_high_reference": -0.059884, "from_low_reference": 0.019032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.269283, "fair_value_reference": 8.439653, "structural_low": 8.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005514, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010026, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005347, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 9.078, "volume": 370, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 8.962, "volume": 2372, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 8.929, "volume": 224, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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"volume": 10122, "typical_volume": 3092.95, "trend": 8.277983, "fair_value": 8.451544, "relative_strength": -13.784402, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.871946, "energy": 72.663073, "activity_lines": [ 8.402933, 8.340218, 8.298679, 8.292542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.305, "volume": 974, "typical_volume": 2891.6, "trend": 8.279767, "fair_value": 8.449951, "relative_strength": -12.483574, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.474475, "energy": 60.602417, "activity_lines": [ 8.374933, 8.344645, 8.298717, 8.294285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.2445, "volume": 250, "typical_volume": 2828.55, "trend": 8.279533, "fair_value": 8.447742, "relative_strength": -12.673508, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.86501, "energy": 16.216604, "activity_lines": [ 8.326967, 8.3357, 8.29351, 8.29201 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.042, "volume": 6200, "typical_volume": 3138.5, "trend": 8.275433, "fair_value": 8.443426, "relative_strength": -14.958839, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.36731, "energy": 36.680055, "activity_lines": [ 8.215733, 8.286645, 8.270198, 8.276685 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.085, "volume": 12474, "typical_volume": 3699.7, "trend": 8.269283, "fair_value": 8.439653, "relative_strength": -16.574082, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.874937, "energy": 57.044655, "activity_lines": [ 8.150967, 8.246845, 8.253214, 8.264399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }