{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83ded37f-1db1-4ae5-b96c-e470eaaf8775", "symbol": "300600", "name": "Changshu Guorui Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.876, "architecture_energy": 46.472, "architecture_maturity": 93.986, "architecture_confidence": 81.614, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.92, "rotation_up": 25.52, "upward_expansion": 6.89, "deceleration": 60.01, "rotation_down": 48.12, "downward_expansion": 77.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.671333, 9.715455, 10.497143, 11.191677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.15, "trend_reference": 12.213667, "distance_from_trend": -0.168964, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.420833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02599, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.459935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.269258, "excess_performance": -0.276658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168964, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139943, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02599, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273573, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053201, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.269258, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.611851, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27117696, "relative_activity": 0.883822, "balance": 1.611851, "dry_up": 1.315206, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11853, "annualized_volatility": 0.404348, "from_high_reference": -0.57478, "from_low_reference": 0.251541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.213667, "fair_value_reference": 10.420833, "structural_low": 8.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.001713, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005247, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.32513, "worst_return": -0.291768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014156, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.000347, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.338596, "worst_return": -0.245033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.080648, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.025771, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.339862, "worst_return": -0.184265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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12.536333, "fair_value": 10.443013, "relative_strength": -38.752025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.610928, "energy": 63.592553, "activity_lines": [ 9.265333, 9.740182, 10.746762, 11.501247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.96, "volume": 55622550, "typical_volume": 31072394.15, "trend": 12.372, "fair_value": 10.428718, "relative_strength": -30.121737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.346672, "energy": 53.04186, "activity_lines": [ 9.458, 9.694727, 10.605381, 11.335032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.15, "volume": 27117696, "typical_volume": 30682315.9, "trend": 12.213667, "fair_value": 10.420833, "relative_strength": -31.459935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.875704, "energy": 46.472409, "activity_lines": [ 9.671333, 9.715455, 10.497143, 11.191677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }