{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83e04c19-0a4a-4895-b0bd-0d64b459b044", "symbol": "MAF", "name": "MA Financial Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.333, "architecture_energy": 49.655, "architecture_maturity": 69.25, "architecture_confidence": 90.291, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.63, "rotation_up": 23.28, "upward_expansion": 7.37, "deceleration": 56.44, "rotation_down": 49.62, "downward_expansion": 76.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.944, 6.058364, 6.260095, 6.62561 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.02, "trend_reference": 7.389497, "distance_from_trend": -0.18533, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.416358, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061773, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.904507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.371628, "excess_performance": -0.435333, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.18533, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148632, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061773, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161383, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.309045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114927, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.371628, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.372905, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1470307, "relative_activity": 1.044964, "balance": 0.372905, "dry_up": 0.854848, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083823, "annualized_volatility": 0.443083, "from_high_reference": -0.474737, "from_low_reference": 0.092559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.389497, "fair_value_reference": 6.416358, "structural_low": 5.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.027421, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.03682, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.244576, "worst_return": -0.277598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.10797, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.076679, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.531374, "worst_return": -0.314336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.131821, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.033929, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.464793, "worst_return": -0.438481, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007267, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066761, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.20233, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.497993, "energy": 44.63717, "activity_lines": [ 6.290667, 6.285455, 6.542, 7.103798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.32, "volume": 865088, "typical_volume": 1843844.8, "trend": 7.886969, "fair_value": 6.384693, "relative_strength": -24.759795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.587026, "energy": 42.748633, "activity_lines": [ 6.313333, 6.278545, 6.489476, 6.993383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.72, "volume": 1102661, "typical_volume": 1751847.7, "trend": 7.717923, "fair_value": 6.393056, "relative_strength": -31.380363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.271961, "energy": 54.336467, "activity_lines": [ 6.112667, 6.173091, 6.393714, 6.853579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.71, "volume": 1373169, "typical_volume": 1647594.7, "trend": 7.54559, "fair_value": 6.403451, "relative_strength": -32.686962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.501021, "energy": 55.787581, "activity_lines": [ 5.968667, 6.080909, 6.308714, 6.724035 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.02, "volume": 1470307, "typical_volume": 1407041.05, "trend": 7.389497, "fair_value": 6.416358, "relative_strength": -30.904507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.333124, "energy": 49.654636, "activity_lines": [ 5.944, 6.058364, 6.260095, 6.62561 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }