{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83e077b6-3d76-40bb-a2c4-0bf9d53d2abf", "symbol": "VNQ", "name": "Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.987, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.752, "architecture_energy": 59.063, "architecture_maturity": 28.558, "architecture_confidence": 71.888, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.66, "rotation_up": 68.37, "upward_expansion": 85.94, "deceleration": 49.5, "rotation_down": 15.2, "downward_expansion": 10.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 1733.867318, 1722.984042, 1696.982782, 1676.336734 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1699.98999, "trend_reference": 1647.3085, "distance_from_trend": 0.03198, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1618.060207, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050635, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.007448, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.092227, "excess_performance": 0.146894, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03198, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050635, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013005, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010074, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104464, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092227, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.496155, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 593, "relative_activity": 1.520903, "balance": 0.496155, "dry_up": 1.15286, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024884, "annualized_volatility": 0.150156, "from_high_reference": -0.047619, "from_low_reference": 0.117416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1647.3085, "fair_value_reference": 1618.060207, "structural_low": 1545.540149, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.007274, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.009319, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.118935, "worst_return": -0.095013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.032649, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.012282, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.212329, "worst_return": -0.066076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05612, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.055965, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.162101, "worst_return": -0.157717, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"up", "direction": 82.348578, "energy": 80.24332, "activity_lines": [ 1717.818595, 1699.535518, 1675.326841, 1656.879238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1748.709961, "volume": 633, "typical_volume": 408.7, "trend": 1637.21626, "fair_value": 1613.980441, "relative_strength": 4.327191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.846119, "energy": 81.476065, "activity_lines": [ 1732.423974, 1711.568546, 1684.052491, 1664.464449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1764.98999, "volume": 205, "typical_volume": 381.25, "trend": 1643.74331, "fair_value": 1616.184496, "relative_strength": 4.644935, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.438896, "energy": 84.263151, "activity_lines": [ 1745.578646, 1724.10918, 1693.9045, 1672.707916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1699.98999, "volume": 593, "typical_volume": 389.9, "trend": 1647.3085, "fair_value": 1618.060207, "relative_strength": 1.007448, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.752423, "energy": 59.062541, "activity_lines": [ 1733.867318, 1722.984042, 1696.982782, 1676.336734 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }