{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83e9a1f9-74ca-4ac6-989f-cdf261df974a", "symbol": "ENERS", "name": "Enersize Oyj", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.941, "architecture_energy": 38.93, "architecture_maturity": 59.857, "architecture_confidence": 88.617, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.73, "rotation_up": 15.62, "upward_expansion": 5.55, "deceleration": 45.1, "rotation_down": 53.09, "downward_expansion": 76.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001307, 0.001351, 0.00147, 0.001496 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0012, "trend_reference": 0.001497, "distance_from_trend": -0.198218, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.0049, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.755111, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.856139, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142857, "excess_performance": -0.204352, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198218, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023913, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.755111, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.358561, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132375, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.336526, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137620295, "relative_activity": 0.703322, "balance": 2.336526, "dry_up": 0.426652, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.288462, "annualized_volatility": 0.848663, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 0.714286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.001497, "fair_value_reference": 0.0049, "structural_low": 0.0011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.061688, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.07154, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.9875, "worst_return": -0.299479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.233032, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.29774, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.367347, "worst_return": -0.567335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.442308, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.518673, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.316327, "worst_return": -0.628984, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.75, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.831227, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.55102, "worst_return": -0.808349, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.228571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12987, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003105, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.353846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082353, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.533333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.423077, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.454545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.294118, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.0095, "volume": 16221907, "typical_volume": 77747729.25, "trend": 0.018123, "fair_value": 0.111099, "relative_strength": -66.138269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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[ 0.001387, 0.001509, 0.001561, 0.001544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0014, "volume": 50269345, "typical_volume": 284742364.05, "trend": 0.00151, "fair_value": 0.005087, "relative_strength": -24.620298, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.767104, "energy": 26.412853, "activity_lines": [ 0.001393, 0.001476, 0.001545, 0.001537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0014, "volume": 48743351, "typical_volume": 258476958.75, "trend": 0.001513, "fair_value": 0.005019, "relative_strength": -24.86607, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.103925, "energy": 21.017971, "activity_lines": [ 0.001393, 0.001447, 0.001529, 0.001529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0013, "volume": 97302485, "typical_volume": 203428105.55, "trend": 0.001507, "fair_value": 0.004957, "relative_strength": -30.077489, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.896116, "energy": 20.572391, "activity_lines": [ 0.001367, 0.001404, 0.001503, 0.001516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0012, "volume": 137620295, "typical_volume": 195671916.35, "trend": 0.001497, "fair_value": 0.0049, "relative_strength": -35.856139, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.941415, "energy": 38.930144, "activity_lines": [ 0.001307, 0.001351, 0.00147, 0.001496 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }