{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83ef47a5-3139-4e79-856e-81274088c3fd", "symbol": "MAHSCOOTER", "name": "Maharashtra Scooters Ltd.", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.395, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.862, "architecture_energy": 43.605, "architecture_maturity": 20.372, "architecture_confidence": 61.096, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.94, "rotation_up": 63.06, "upward_expansion": 56.49, "deceleration": 25.37, "rotation_down": 20.15, "downward_expansion": 14.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 13219.133333, 13016.574503, 12757.876939, 12719.442673 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13818.0, "trend_reference": 12798.575619, "distance_from_trend": 0.079651, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10861.493374, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272201, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.109717, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018501, "excess_performance": 0.06221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079651, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036426, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272201, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016531, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068318, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018501, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.030195, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38992, "relative_activity": 1.832004, "balance": 2.030195, "dry_up": 1.217475, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05335, "annualized_volatility": 0.354494, "from_high_reference": -0.247844, "from_low_reference": 0.26759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12798.575619, "fair_value_reference": 10861.493374, "structural_low": 10901.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.021066, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.030202, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.141024, "worst_return": -0.041265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.218228, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.09409, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.361103, "worst_return": 0.030006, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.399274, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.320735, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.401944, "worst_return": 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24.103573, "activity_lines": [ 12884.160612, 12739.213991, 12585.250925, 12641.551355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13009.0, "volume": 40395, "typical_volume": 20260.95, "trend": 12789.375619, "fair_value": 10807.901865, "relative_strength": -5.344431, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.398093, "energy": 27.001344, "activity_lines": [ 12935.6, 12817.107901, 12633.944885, 12653.079809 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13818.0, "volume": 38992, "typical_volume": 21283.8, "trend": 12798.575619, "fair_value": 10861.493374, "relative_strength": -0.109717, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.861879, "energy": 43.604569, "activity_lines": [ 13219.133333, 13016.574503, 12757.876939, 12719.442673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }