{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83f1ba8c-d9c7-44fb-a736-a215ad3bbeed", "symbol": "000419", "name": "Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.96, "architecture_energy": 42.74, "architecture_maturity": 92.492, "architecture_confidence": 62.718, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.26, "rotation_up": 27.15, "upward_expansion": 18.86, "deceleration": 66.91, "rotation_down": 39.31, "downward_expansion": 66.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.767333, 4.744545, 4.969571, 5.23372 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.85, "trend_reference": 5.608333, "distance_from_trend": -0.135215, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.322309, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088741, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.986575, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.257274, "excess_performance": -0.264674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135215, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087383, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088741, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180109, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009242, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257274, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.300941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32991410, "relative_activity": 1.080451, "balance": 0.300941, "dry_up": 1.183464, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065821, "annualized_volatility": 0.238375, "from_high_reference": -0.312057, "from_low_reference": 0.077778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.608333, "fair_value_reference": 5.322309, "structural_low": 4.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.001981, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008333, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.112128, "worst_return": -0.121784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.078761, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04772, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.299529, "worst_return": -0.166381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.158107, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.015932, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.294812, "worst_return": -0.024735, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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5.295238, 5.572688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.68, "volume": 32429655, "typical_volume": 30517026.75, "trend": 5.847667, "fair_value": 5.334095, "relative_strength": -28.935673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.402453, "energy": 83.846095, "activity_lines": [ 4.691333, 4.857636, 5.208095, 5.49357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.76, "volume": 39809937, "typical_volume": 30794664.2, "trend": 5.807, "fair_value": 5.332042, "relative_strength": -19.999286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.289532, "energy": 66.49199, "activity_lines": [ 4.705333, 4.805273, 5.137381, 5.423398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.54, "volume": 39471500, "typical_volume": 30246222.0, "trend": 5.723333, "fair_value": 5.328104, "relative_strength": -23.396384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.426605, "energy": 65.146842, "activity_lines": [ 4.657333, 4.732364, 5.053762, 5.341656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.86, "volume": 32274708, "typical_volume": 30378264.35, "trend": 5.659667, "fair_value": 5.326098, "relative_strength": -16.193768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.12383, "energy": 54.151494, "activity_lines": [ 4.724667, 4.735091, 5.008905, 5.285957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.85, "volume": 32991410, "typical_volume": 30534840.3, "trend": 5.608333, "fair_value": 5.322309, "relative_strength": -19.986575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.960413, "energy": 42.73953, "activity_lines": [ 4.767333, 4.744545, 4.969571, 5.23372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }