{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83f63387-3488-4408-892d-46604ac4ee73", "symbol": "83189", "name": "E Fund ETFs Trust - E Fund (HK) CSI Liquor Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.216, "architecture_energy": 33.658, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.128, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.43, "rotation_up": 31.41, "upward_expansion": 24.4, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 26.75, "downward_expansion": 63.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.0038, 0.977345, 1.006038, 1.052237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.016, "trend_reference": 1.1209, "distance_from_trend": -0.093586, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.511494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.327817, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.655716, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.240658, "excess_performance": -0.207076, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109407, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.327817, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186557, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.240658, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.926072, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148300, "relative_activity": 0.368653, "balance": 8.926072, "dry_up": 3.636567, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042777, "annualized_volatility": 0.227974, "from_high_reference": -0.347882, "from_low_reference": 0.136465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.1209, "fair_value_reference": 1.511494, "structural_low": 0.894, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.037865, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013117, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.26248, "worst_return": -0.100179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012497, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038128, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.148905, "worst_return": -0.169565, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024286, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.185959, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.067153, "worst_return": -0.270992, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066406, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.423267, "energy": 44.855535, "activity_lines": [ 0.9872, 0.969836, 1.009767, 1.05968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.016, "volume": 148300, "typical_volume": 402275.0, "trend": 1.1209, "fair_value": 1.511494, "relative_strength": -18.655716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.216352, "energy": 33.658087, "activity_lines": [ 1.0038, 0.977345, 1.006038, 1.052237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }