{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83f95732-efc4-42c4-9c24-1679050a130c", "symbol": "BEI", "name": "Beiersdorf Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.818, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 17.134, "architecture_energy": 41.258, "architecture_maturity": 2.094, "architecture_confidence": 54.161, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.94, "rotation_up": 55.72, "upward_expansion": 44.29, "deceleration": 26.72, "rotation_down": 14.15, "downward_expansion": 47.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.702664, 77.926908, 75.419753, 76.736171 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 80.879997, "trend_reference": 80.975136, "distance_from_trend": -0.001175, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 111.803099, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.276585, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.04478, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.206359, "excess_performance": -0.380606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001175, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059103, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.276585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097357, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122667, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.206359, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.686394, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10264, "relative_activity": 9.506344, "balance": 7.686394, "dry_up": 3.036955, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038366, "annualized_volatility": 0.423727, "from_high_reference": -0.254021, "from_low_reference": 0.189412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.975136, "fair_value_reference": 111.803099, "structural_low": 68.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.095844, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.027209, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016201, "worst_return": -0.193804, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.095055, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.131917, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04434, "worst_return": -0.291728, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.206359, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.336974, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0712, "worst_return": -0.265473, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095844, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046377, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.202684, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"volume": 1528, "typical_volume": 662.9, "trend": 81.40451, "fair_value": 112.039749, "relative_strength": -23.234841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.726015, "energy": 38.202441, "activity_lines": [ 78.861331, 76.833453, 74.759618, 76.770011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.879997, "volume": 10264, "typical_volume": 1079.7, "trend": 80.975136, "fair_value": 111.803099, "relative_strength": -24.04478, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 17.134122, "energy": 41.258233, "activity_lines": [ 79.702664, 77.926908, 75.419753, 76.736171 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }