{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "83fc78da-c3fa-4073-965c-67d7b9edc523",
    "symbol": "XWCS",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Consumer Staples UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 60.172,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 47.726,
    "architecture_energy": 23.599,
    "architecture_maturity": 22.885,
    "architecture_confidence": 66.915,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 37.77,
        "rotation_up": 46.92,
        "upward_expansion": 74.66,
        "deceleration": 58.62,
        "rotation_down": 18.95,
        "downward_expansion": 1.33
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        41.379333,
        41.337636,
        41.078024,
        41.024554
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 41.397499,
    "trend_reference": 40.951,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.010903,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 38.020379,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088824,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.837026,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.013758,
    "excess_performance": -0.064993,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010903,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022116,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.088824,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035459,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04837,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012772,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.013758,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.096869,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 10660,
      "relative_activity": 0.464181,
      "balance": 1.096869,
      "dry_up": 1.865899,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.035211,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.1482,
      "from_high_reference": -0.199532,
      "from_low_reference": 0.122035
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 40.951,
      "fair_value_reference": 38.020379,
      "structural_low": 38.970001,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": 0.001546,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014803,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.086882,
        "worst_return": -0.089301,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.010041,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016881,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.354015,
        "worst_return": -0.078606,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.027098,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.063425,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.046903,
        "worst_return": -0.155215,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.009207,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.053825,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.085167,
        "worst_return": -0.003794,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-15",
        "end": "2024-06-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.022688,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.028465,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.005116,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.017979,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.013365,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.034945,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
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        "return": -0.024945,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.025265,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-03",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.039669,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": -0.254205,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "return": 0.075317,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "return": -0.075862,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-05-29",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "return": 0.026915,
        "active": true
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    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "energy": 31.830877,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": -3.55711,
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      },
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "direction": 44.683686,
        "energy": 33.866769,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 41.785,
        "volume": 99089,
        "typical_volume": 57872.35,
        "trend": 40.63375,
        "fair_value": 38.105054,
        "relative_strength": -1.800698,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.166895,
        "energy": 44.84208,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.426,
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          40.919571,
          40.911667
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 41.07,
        "volume": 48491,
        "typical_volume": 26476.5,
        "trend": 40.73875,
        "fair_value": 38.070789,
        "relative_strength": -4.536068,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.352764,
        "energy": 25.625016,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.338167,
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          40.946226,
          40.939812
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 41.5075,
        "volume": 13163,
        "typical_volume": 23728.25,
        "trend": 40.85275,
        "fair_value": 38.046242,
        "relative_strength": -4.505473,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.528475,
        "energy": 23.227409,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.362167,
          41.277955,
          41.017155,
          40.989408
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 41.397499,
        "volume": 10660,
        "typical_volume": 22965.2,
        "trend": 40.951,
        "fair_value": 38.020379,
        "relative_strength": -4.837026,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.725841,
        "energy": 23.598681,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.379333,
          41.337636,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}