{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84053995-1965-4442-a47b-07b2fe07bc97", "symbol": "SHF", "name": "SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.292, "architecture_energy": 8.246, "architecture_maturity": 20.023, "architecture_confidence": 60.188, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 71.63, "rotation_up": 26.18, "upward_expansion": 18.44, "deceleration": 64.78, "rotation_down": 30.17, "downward_expansion": 29.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.559999, 81.512726, 82.109523, 82.113548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 82.0, "trend_reference": 81.966667, "distance_from_trend": 0.000407, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.932051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324032, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.128273, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004854, "excess_performance": -0.069494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000407, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019824, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324032, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13916, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004854, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.774312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 500, "relative_activity": 0.284164, "balance": 0.774312, "dry_up": 0.612088, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020638, "annualized_volatility": 0.098094, "from_high_reference": -0.053118, "from_low_reference": 0.138889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.966667, "fair_value_reference": 61.932051, "structural_low": 77.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.002457, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00374, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.005566, "worst_return": -0.091062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.198988, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.168277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.198988, "worst_return": -0.198988, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.385835, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.402396, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.385835, "worst_return": -0.385835, 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.828767, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003215, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.060127, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050296, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.119114, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0399, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007246, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007371, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 33.799999, "volume": 11531, "typical_volume": 24117.2, "trend": 31.403333, "fair_value": 39.896603, "relative_strength": 20.086555, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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-24.479983, "energy": 23.409397, "activity_lines": [ 81.253332, 81.967272, 82.379048, 82.155699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 81.199997, "volume": 1632, "typical_volume": 2346.45, "trend": 81.626667, "fair_value": 61.007051, "relative_strength": 0.895708, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.534549, "energy": 25.034901, "activity_lines": [ 81.159998, 81.712726, 82.280952, 82.137204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.199997, "volume": 535, "typical_volume": 2130.9, "trend": 81.78, "fair_value": 61.31218, "relative_strength": -0.331841, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.473505, "energy": 29.210235, "activity_lines": [ 81.133331, 81.527271, 82.179047, 82.109677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.8, "volume": 1641, "typical_volume": 2055.25, "trend": 81.96, "fair_value": 61.621795, "relative_strength": -1.736448, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.991479, "energy": 24.157049, "activity_lines": [ 81.319998, 81.490908, 82.133333, 82.110968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.0, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1759.55, "trend": 81.966667, "fair_value": 61.932051, "relative_strength": -4.128273, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.292205, "energy": 8.246272, "activity_lines": [ 81.559999, 81.512726, 82.109523, 82.113548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }