{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8406b356-a42c-45ec-bd86-0357f300fe53",
    "symbol": "AUGB-F",
    "name": "First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - August",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 48.139,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 66.885,
    "architecture_energy": 87.485,
    "architecture_maturity": 57.544,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.033,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 7.71,
        "rotation_up": 55.98,
        "upward_expansion": 95.33,
        "deceleration": 44.67,
        "rotation_down": 30.0,
        "downward_expansion": 22.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        54.688001,
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        53.586344
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 54.560001,
    "trend_reference": 52.878333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.031803,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 42.23069,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291951,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.961265,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.046012,
    "excess_performance": -0.074409,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031803,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.047717,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.291951,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04048,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029613,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.045892,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046012,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.6,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 0.6,
      "dry_up": 0.4998,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.004286,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.099786,
      "from_high_reference": -0.005831,
      "from_low_reference": 0.226811
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 52.878333,
      "fair_value_reference": 42.23069,
      "structural_low": 49.259998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 42,
        "median_return": 0.009762,
        "positive_rate": 0.761905,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.761905,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004927,
        "regime_survival": 0.857143,
        "best_return": 0.113248,
        "worst_return": -0.037319,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
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        "positive_rate": 0.785714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.785714,
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        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
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        "worst_return": -0.100813,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.060743,
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      {
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "typical_volume": 1197.55,
        "trend": 49.124748,
        "fair_value": 40.175713,
        "relative_strength": 0.408461,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.76682,
        "energy": 53.431397,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 53.110001,
        "volume": 690,
        "typical_volume": 934.9,
        "trend": 49.365029,
        "fair_value": 40.311043,
        "relative_strength": 0.662001,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.216438,
        "energy": 75.131931,
        "activity_lines": [
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          51.375662,
          50.614704
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 53.900002,
        "volume": 3725,
        "typical_volume": 951.0,
        "trend": 49.650811,
        "fair_value": 40.452378,
        "relative_strength": 1.6279,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.144751,
        "energy": 84.239431,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 53.919998,
        "volume": 200,
        "typical_volume": 881.0,
        "trend": 49.927676,
        "fair_value": 40.59218,
        "relative_strength": 2.421902,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.236137,
        "energy": 92.514267,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 54.25,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 881.0,
        "trend": 50.202663,
        "fair_value": 40.734597,
        "relative_strength": 1.173072,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.42613,
        "energy": 93.144636,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 54.48,
        "volume": 200,
        "typical_volume": 801.0,
        "trend": 50.470043,
        "fair_value": 40.876439,
        "relative_strength": 0.749593,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.057825,
        "energy": 91.628317,
        "activity_lines": [
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          52.363333,
          51.737531
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 54.59,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 791.0,
        "trend": 50.762353,
        "fair_value": 41.016773,
        "relative_strength": 1.970326,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.234609,
        "energy": 88.659308,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.357333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 53.82,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 708.5,
        "trend": 51.028398,
        "fair_value": 41.147577,
        "relative_strength": -0.901069,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.863234,
        "energy": 67.281925,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 54.549999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 708.5,
        "trend": 51.318776,
        "fair_value": 41.285773,
        "relative_strength": 0.392047,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.638902,
        "energy": 68.853258,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 54.549999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 663.5,
        "trend": 51.594179,
        "fair_value": 41.423968,
        "relative_strength": 0.384408,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.358826,
        "energy": 67.244075,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.404666,
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          53.195714,
          52.636269
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 54.509998,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 648.5,
        "trend": 51.864356,
        "fair_value": 41.561907,
        "relative_strength": -0.35048,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.213035,
        "energy": 64.897495,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.441999,
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          53.389333,
          52.824386
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 54.880001,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 621.05,
        "trend": 52.148963,
        "fair_value": 41.699064,
        "relative_strength": 0.237325,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.052167,
        "energy": 68.296498,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.600666,
          54.471272,
          53.605,
          53.018944
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 54.880001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 608.45,
        "trend": 52.435667,
        "fair_value": 41.831571,
        "relative_strength": 0.407325,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.997907,
        "energy": 89.850337,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.74,
          54.568545,
          53.806381,
          53.19514
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 54.880001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 507.45,
        "trend": 52.705,
        "fair_value": 41.962915,
        "relative_strength": 0.182859,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.473906,
        "energy": 90.118083,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.808667,
          54.648,
          53.994428,
          53.352839
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 54.560001,
        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 537.45,
        "trend": 52.795667,
        "fair_value": 42.095806,
        "relative_strength": 0.110436,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.815451,
        "energy": 85.969998,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.748667,
          54.651818,
          54.135238,
          53.472516
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 54.560001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 500.2,
        "trend": 52.878333,
        "fair_value": 42.23069,
        "relative_strength": -2.961265,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.884514,
        "energy": 87.48457,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.688001,
          54.65,
          54.258095,
          53.586344
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}