{ "ticker": { "uuid": "840aff99-b623-4d92-92b2-c94ec674b9b0", "symbol": "EXXT", "name": "iShares NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.988, "architecture_energy": 30.662, "architecture_maturity": 68.937, "architecture_confidence": 89.946, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.94, "rotation_up": 31.35, "upward_expansion": 62.29, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 30.91, "downward_expansion": 21.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 244.179999, 246.64751, 244.595438, 236.861571 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 249.800003, "trend_reference": 227.254193, "distance_from_trend": 0.09921, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 185.741328, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.344881, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.621792, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.218726, "excess_performance": 0.154087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09921, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059738, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.344881, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018039, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056218, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108725, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.218726, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.446726, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148012, "relative_activity": 1.288236, "balance": 1.446726, "dry_up": 1.207388, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033966, "annualized_volatility": 0.18634, "from_high_reference": -0.030091, "from_low_reference": 0.307759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 227.254193, "fair_value_reference": 185.741328, "structural_low": 195.420574, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.012558, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.006398, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.087901, "worst_return": -0.027359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.090158, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.04381, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.167643, "worst_return": -0.034126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.176955, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.092479, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.208431, "worst_return": -0.000448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011284, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032756, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049465, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029655, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023386, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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251.949997, "volume": 5695, "typical_volume": 122423.5, "trend": 221.474409, "fair_value": 182.213085, "relative_strength": 10.73896, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.926301, "energy": 65.136715, "activity_lines": [ 251.927542, 250.228747, 238.14638, 230.080341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 252.899994, "volume": 125049, "typical_volume": 119626.25, "trend": 222.962202, "fair_value": 182.971159, "relative_strength": 13.745255, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.181349, "energy": 64.785566, "activity_lines": [ 252.368076, 251.321835, 240.569183, 232.107798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 242.699997, "volume": 110436, "typical_volume": 113731.45, "trend": 224.058488, "fair_value": 183.664103, "relative_strength": 9.751084, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.258119, "energy": 51.298464, "activity_lines": [ 249.189998, 250.069335, 241.796828, 233.381204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 242.199997, "volume": 148042, "typical_volume": 113638.55, "trend": 225.1198, "fair_value": 184.331816, "relative_strength": 7.958602, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.400406, "energy": 40.77296, "activity_lines": [ 246.28333, 248.676465, 242.797178, 234.551624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 237.199997, "volume": 148402, "typical_volume": 114534.4, "trend": 226.076027, "fair_value": 184.985684, "relative_strength": 3.301904, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.052716, "energy": 27.82786, "activity_lines": [ 242.709997, 246.417694, 243.166868, 235.330991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 249.800003, "volume": 148012, "typical_volume": 114895.1, "trend": 227.254193, "fair_value": 185.741328, "relative_strength": 5.621792, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.988482, "energy": 30.662006, "activity_lines": [ 244.179999, 246.64751, 244.595438, 236.861571 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }