{ "ticker": { "uuid": "840b9cef-a7e6-4bc0-ae95-102ddbe91452", "symbol": "2906", "name": "Collins Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.673, "architecture_energy": 27.685, "architecture_maturity": 42.378, "architecture_confidence": 72.303, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.33, "rotation_up": 38.8, "upward_expansion": 64.67, "deceleration": 85.06, "rotation_down": 23.92, "downward_expansion": 14.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.233333, 13.275338, 12.908612, 12.715168 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.4, "trend_reference": 12.473759, "distance_from_trend": 0.074255, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.290182, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123621, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.131585, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.142494, "excess_performance": -0.298878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074255, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018089, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123621, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097938, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.261316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134047, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142494, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.837953, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 607760, "relative_activity": 0.351833, "balance": 5.837953, "dry_up": 0.663717, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054688, "annualized_volatility": 0.18898, "from_high_reference": -0.130711, "from_low_reference": 0.156657 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.473759, "fair_value_reference": 15.290182, "structural_low": 11.585107, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.014133, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00547, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.087324, "worst_return": -0.046784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045918, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.042978, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.108371, "worst_return": -0.248731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000866, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056343, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.140351, "worst_return": -0.167315, "sufficient": false }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007595, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0725, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005348, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.128233, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039474, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.109589, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032786, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-14", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 16.114031, "volume": 3908529, "typical_volume": 5025665.75, "trend": 15.43121, "fair_value": 14.309698, "relative_strength": -2.550744, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"energy": 68.153525, "activity_lines": [ 13.438298, 13.143423, 12.732827, 12.562423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.0, "volume": 1279344, "typical_volume": 1751925.25, "trend": 12.391419, "fair_value": 15.330884, "relative_strength": -26.155669, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.581279, "energy": 40.302453, "activity_lines": [ 13.266099, 13.172863, 12.777594, 12.603185 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.15, "volume": 796815, "typical_volume": 1735936.85, "trend": 12.422837, "fair_value": 15.311023, "relative_strength": -26.037115, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.965595, "energy": 29.375461, "activity_lines": [ 13.183617, 13.213423, 12.832416, 12.652125 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.4, "volume": 607760, "typical_volume": 1727408.85, "trend": 12.473759, "fair_value": 15.290182, "relative_strength": -26.131585, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.672592, "energy": 27.685364, "activity_lines": [ 13.233333, 13.275338, 12.908612, 12.715168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }