{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8412a9e4-255a-400b-8bd4-5c20dc7d5d8e", "symbol": "002184", "name": "Shanghai Hi-Tech Control System Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.822, "architecture_energy": 51.019, "architecture_maturity": 80.643, "architecture_confidence": 92.001, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 22.2, "upward_expansion": 7.8, "deceleration": 59.59, "rotation_down": 56.41, "downward_expansion": 81.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.474667, 9.580364, 10.328, 10.823849 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.89, "trend_reference": 11.572667, "distance_from_trend": -0.1454, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.303473, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196162, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.682667, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.254148, "excess_performance": -0.261548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1454, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096403, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196162, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146358, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246827, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0157, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254148, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.593285, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33237032, "relative_activity": 1.125808, "balance": 0.593285, "dry_up": 1.103173, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095434, "annualized_volatility": 0.351567, "from_high_reference": -0.427331, "from_low_reference": 0.160798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.572667, "fair_value_reference": 12.303473, "structural_low": 8.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.036087, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.052548, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.179088, "worst_return": -0.168081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.136342, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.097648, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.374131, "worst_return": -0.247098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.034586, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.114031, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.49941, "worst_return": -0.334806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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10.036667, 10.759455, 11.218333, 11.64643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.34, "volume": 42289576, "typical_volume": 28351871.3, "trend": 12.039, "fair_value": 12.457797, "relative_strength": -35.274888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.358104, "energy": 87.132721, "activity_lines": [ 9.694667, 10.418364, 11.000952, 11.463183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.11, "volume": 31836037, "typical_volume": 28915193.05, "trend": 11.913333, "fair_value": 12.412943, "relative_strength": -29.933318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.507792, "energy": 85.873571, "activity_lines": [ 9.436667, 10.078182, 10.779714, 11.274215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.93, "volume": 31454208, "typical_volume": 28663307.9, "trend": 11.788, "fair_value": 12.368509, "relative_strength": -30.834191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.756986, "energy": 72.930145, "activity_lines": [ 9.214667, 9.758364, 10.561667, 11.081742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.58, "volume": 33747816, "typical_volume": 28968393.95, "trend": 11.679333, "fair_value": 12.330697, "relative_strength": -23.947543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.517331, "energy": 58.940189, "activity_lines": [ 9.307333, 9.616545, 10.42319, 10.93929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.89, "volume": 33237032, "typical_volume": 29522824.3, "trend": 11.572667, "fair_value": 12.303473, "relative_strength": -24.682667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.821946, "energy": 51.018784, "activity_lines": [ 9.474667, 9.580364, 10.328, 10.823849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }