{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8414fd20-9965-4abf-9b7b-52a5026ae126", "symbol": "CELH", "name": "Celsius Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.97, "architecture_energy": 47.862, "architecture_maturity": 67.138, "architecture_confidence": 93.285, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.18, "rotation_up": 20.55, "upward_expansion": 6.17, "deceleration": 53.83, "rotation_down": 57.67, "downward_expansion": 79.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.375333, 29.239455, 30.239857, 32.678581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.77, "trend_reference": 37.203, "distance_from_trend": -0.253555, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.066004, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.409978, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.326813, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.45086, "excess_performance": -0.638314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.253555, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114538, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.409978, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074268, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.453268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022727, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.45086, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.435817, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112520840, "relative_activity": 2.486533, "balance": 0.435817, "dry_up": 1.258733, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137027, "annualized_volatility": 0.631473, "from_high_reference": -0.583908, "from_low_reference": 0.178943 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.203, "fair_value_reference": 47.066004, "structural_low": 23.555, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.004736, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.013331, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.453632, "worst_return": -0.205981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.089988, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.198303, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.659297, "worst_return": -0.262936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.714634, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.712305, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.852089, "worst_return": -0.415125, "sufficient": false }, { 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-48.052717, "energy": 36.39542, "activity_lines": [ 31.064667, 30.738545, 32.163, 35.428151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.99, "volume": 35271183, "typical_volume": 40111494.05, "trend": 39.274333, "fair_value": 47.520812, "relative_strength": -42.750303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.085804, "energy": 40.272027, "activity_lines": [ 30.488667, 30.417455, 31.606714, 34.734946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.12, "volume": 50107111, "typical_volume": 40736964.55, "trend": 38.658667, "fair_value": 47.37953, "relative_strength": -44.949026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.965328, "energy": 48.565382, "activity_lines": [ 29.302, 29.816364, 30.989571, 33.950796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.21, "volume": 29942034, "typical_volume": 40865852.8, "trend": 38.040667, "fair_value": 47.262051, "relative_strength": -40.416587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.919986, "energy": 46.141398, "activity_lines": [ 29.057333, 29.650545, 30.646714, 33.341204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.77, "volume": 112520840, "typical_volume": 45252097.25, "trend": 37.203, "fair_value": 47.066004, "relative_strength": -45.326813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.970128, "energy": 47.861805, "activity_lines": [ 28.375333, 29.239455, 30.239857, 32.678581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }