{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8415711a-c576-4679-8100-d8e8af878e36", "symbol": "CTKB", "name": "Cytek Biosciences Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.606, "architecture_energy": 11.349, "architecture_maturity": 17.875, "architecture_confidence": 64.083, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.47, "rotation_up": 25.7, "upward_expansion": 22.65, "deceleration": 32.03, "rotation_down": 34.7, "downward_expansion": 54.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.341333, 4.362, 4.298286, 4.317419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.2, "trend_reference": 4.407833, "distance_from_trend": -0.047151, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.302244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.207882, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.77033, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060403, "excess_performance": -0.247856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047151, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063127, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.207882, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022772, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090944, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060403, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.478698, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4744820, "relative_activity": 0.88375, "balance": 0.478698, "dry_up": 0.716869, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12643, "annualized_volatility": 0.617803, "from_high_reference": -0.320388, "from_low_reference": 0.280488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.407833, "fair_value_reference": 5.302244, "structural_low": 3.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.054245, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.101121, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.380282, "worst_return": -0.285899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.19415, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.270813, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.071429, "worst_return": -0.517052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.213159, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.323617, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.373626, "worst_return": -0.293525, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.547843, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.159341, "worst_return": -0.39934, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196941, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.121429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101648, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089157, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.252941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.151803, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044811, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048611, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.261388, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.46, "volume": 3582958, "typical_volume": 5573513.95, "trend": 9.54, "fair_value": 13.638899, "relative_strength": -35.23318, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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15.505019, "energy": 21.385759, "activity_lines": [ 4.538667, 4.338818, 4.304405, 4.352032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.46, "volume": 3437443, "typical_volume": 5454207.65, "trend": 4.472833, "fair_value": 5.366731, "relative_strength": -8.151749, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.86164, "energy": 20.456331, "activity_lines": [ 4.553333, 4.390909, 4.319333, 4.349828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.22, "volume": 2967046, "typical_volume": 5364384.9, "trend": 4.4495, "fair_value": 5.335513, "relative_strength": -13.460819, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.252794, "energy": 12.285622, "activity_lines": [ 4.442, 4.380182, 4.310262, 4.333516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.2, "volume": 4744820, "typical_volume": 5368961.4, "trend": 4.407833, "fair_value": 5.302244, "relative_strength": -17.77033, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.605521, "energy": 11.348746, "activity_lines": [ 4.341333, 4.362, 4.298286, 4.317419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }