{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8416671c-8a80-4b71-a532-a5152891e49b", "symbol": "SXP", "name": "Supremex Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.193, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.976, "architecture_energy": 7.48, "architecture_maturity": 55.614, "architecture_confidence": 39.977, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.3, "rotation_up": 33.73, "upward_expansion": 39.4, "deceleration": 63.21, "rotation_down": 31.03, "downward_expansion": 13.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.667333, 3.666909, 3.648384, 3.646089 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.68, "trend_reference": 3.655769, "distance_from_trend": 0.006628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.41039, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079056, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.599477, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005187, "excess_performance": -0.125608, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006628, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008934, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032453, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105995, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003766, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005187, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519337, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59000, "relative_activity": 1.200651, "balance": 0.519337, "dry_up": 0.817053, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034805, "annualized_volatility": 0.132344, "from_high_reference": -0.085894, "from_low_reference": 0.080121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.655769, "fair_value_reference": 3.41039, "structural_low": 3.44, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 1.9e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021793, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.208138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001537, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043261, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.36, "worst_return": -0.329478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.008003, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.113582, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.895793, "worst_return": -0.335935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.294958, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.223558, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.884615, "worst_return": -0.355796, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07229, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073019, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081886, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046753, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057644, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051656, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.266595, "energy": 19.952477, "activity_lines": [ 3.685333, 3.656217, 3.641655, 3.646003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.59, "volume": 32300, "typical_volume": 49275.0, "trend": 3.652102, "fair_value": 3.427813, "relative_strength": -11.295702, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.793512, "energy": 9.265175, "activity_lines": [ 3.658667, 3.647303, 3.637228, 3.642122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.65, "volume": 48000, "typical_volume": 48080.0, "trend": 3.65671, "fair_value": 3.419967, "relative_strength": -9.659941, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.871054, "energy": 10.725814, "activity_lines": [ 3.649333, 3.650379, 3.6388, 3.641987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.7, "volume": 21300, "typical_volume": 47555.0, "trend": 3.659697, "fair_value": 3.41234, "relative_strength": -7.635212, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.71006, "energy": 9.471009, "activity_lines": [ 3.663333, 3.66146, 3.644898, 3.644779 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.68, "volume": 59000, "typical_volume": 49140.0, "trend": 3.655769, "fair_value": 3.41039, "relative_strength": -10.599477, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.976304, "energy": 7.479561, "activity_lines": [ 3.667333, 3.666909, 3.648384, 3.646089 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }