{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8416c06a-13cd-4d9c-89ae-11d3609ce70a", "symbol": "NPH", "name": "Napier Port Holdings Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.448, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.339, "architecture_energy": 6.331, "architecture_maturity": 16.833, "architecture_confidence": 57.967, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.6, "rotation_up": 28.22, "upward_expansion": 34.4, "deceleration": 62.3, "rotation_down": 34.72, "downward_expansion": 20.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.689333, 3.705955, 3.67496, 3.658712 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.7, "trend_reference": 3.663631, "distance_from_trend": 0.009927, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.764112, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.338585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.363661, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023747, "excess_performance": -0.05202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009927, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011485, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.338585, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013637, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023747, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.835965, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172715, "relative_activity": 0.531968, "balance": 3.835965, "dry_up": 0.88598, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036583, "annualized_volatility": 0.171249, "from_high_reference": -0.090909, "from_low_reference": 0.274105 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.663631, "fair_value_reference": 2.764112, "structural_low": 3.311671, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.015906, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01971, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.048035, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.08847, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.070307, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.060869, "worst_return": -0.095745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.065541, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.127128, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.006743, "worst_return": -0.143269, "sufficient": false 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"activity_lines": [ 3.736667, 3.709712, 3.658468, 3.655995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.75, "volume": 378591, "typical_volume": 324992.05, "trend": 3.671631, "fair_value": 2.745423, "relative_strength": 3.463858, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.774203, "energy": 30.951938, "activity_lines": [ 3.738667, 3.721906, 3.670616, 3.661202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.6, "volume": 133160, "typical_volume": 322998.9, "trend": 3.666965, "fair_value": 2.754388, "relative_strength": -0.274736, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.013631, "energy": 5.875978, "activity_lines": [ 3.694, 3.70531, 3.668145, 3.65658 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.7, "volume": 172715, "typical_volume": 324672.0, "trend": 3.663631, "fair_value": 2.764112, "relative_strength": 1.363661, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.338763, "energy": 6.330544, "activity_lines": [ 3.689333, 3.705955, 3.67496, 3.658712 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }