{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84195160-e690-40cb-8a86-d4570353cd2f", "symbol": "AMBEA", "name": "Ambea AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.584, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.857, "architecture_energy": 16.539, "architecture_maturity": 34.026, "architecture_confidence": 77.929, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.47, "rotation_up": 31.79, "upward_expansion": 55.55, "deceleration": 83.36, "rotation_down": 22.91, "downward_expansion": 16.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 143.000001, 143.212729, 142.711895, 140.092362 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 143.0, "trend_reference": 136.684623, "distance_from_trend": 0.046204, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 95.523662, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.497011, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.800058, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.040924, "excess_performance": -0.020571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046204, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022766, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.497011, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170618, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086747, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040924, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.012047, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 391910, "relative_activity": 0.757729, "balance": 1.012047, "dry_up": 0.803414, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063227, "annualized_volatility": 0.406278, "from_high_reference": -0.105691, "from_low_reference": 0.292149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 136.684623, "fair_value_reference": 95.523662, "structural_low": 110.668331, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014284, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.054622, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.077566, "worst_return": -0.005172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083522, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.060608, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.177379, "worst_return": 0.035933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.108086, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173268, "worst_return": -0.153072, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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143.840003, 141.800723, 138.889203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 140.199997, "volume": 392126, "typical_volume": 591949.45, "trend": 136.210844, "fair_value": 94.11545, "relative_strength": -3.534371, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.187537, "energy": 30.65014, "activity_lines": [ 143.993335, 143.116366, 141.940571, 139.14968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 144.300003, "volume": 422954, "typical_volume": 540657.1, "trend": 136.477583, "fair_value": 94.821974, "relative_strength": -2.061108, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.299877, "energy": 22.028825, "activity_lines": [ 143.900002, 143.243639, 142.420518, 139.671561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 143.0, "volume": 391910, "typical_volume": 517216.55, "trend": 136.684623, "fair_value": 95.523662, "relative_strength": -4.800058, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.857448, "energy": 16.538652, "activity_lines": [ 143.000001, 143.212729, 142.711895, 140.092362 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }