{ "ticker": { "uuid": "841b9dd7-c5c2-4501-a0e5-ca537d28f0bb", "symbol": "ABUS", "name": "Arbutus Biopharma Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.429, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.325, "architecture_energy": 17.66, "architecture_maturity": 37.984, "architecture_confidence": 78.095, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.86, "rotation_up": 32.46, "upward_expansion": 57.4, "deceleration": 83.08, "rotation_down": 31.76, "downward_expansion": 21.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.504667, 4.549273, 4.490286, 4.444538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.63, "trend_reference": 4.363333, "distance_from_trend": 0.061115, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.480641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.330215, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.996301, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.205729, "excess_performance": 0.018276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061115, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001906, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.330215, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015446, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035845, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.205729, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.398256, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6146765, "relative_activity": 0.649707, "balance": 1.398256, "dry_up": 0.75713, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088242, "annualized_volatility": 0.403135, "from_high_reference": -0.139405, "from_low_reference": 0.398792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.363333, "fair_value_reference": 3.480641, "structural_low": 3.78, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.00542, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.007027, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.226891, "worst_return": -0.143836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.021424, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044043, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.143345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.148718, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.287553, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.638655, "worst_return": -0.280374, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 4.8, "volume": 16858684, "typical_volume": 10886798.65, "trend": 4.386333, "fair_value": 3.420449, "relative_strength": -3.234694, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.389344, "energy": 56.538171, "activity_lines": [ 4.705333, 4.568, 4.470667, 4.419204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.56, "volume": 9042036, "typical_volume": 10983803.75, "trend": 4.390667, "fair_value": 3.435769, "relative_strength": -4.341466, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.700448, "energy": 51.249776, "activity_lines": [ 4.688, 4.582545, 4.48281, 4.430409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.38, "volume": 7820327, "typical_volume": 10018039.15, "trend": 4.377333, "fair_value": 3.449936, "relative_strength": -6.808585, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.189043, "energy": 34.625837, "activity_lines": [ 4.590667, 4.560364, 4.478286, 4.42972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.34, "volume": 5643204, "typical_volume": 9650639.45, "trend": 4.363, "fair_value": 3.464038, "relative_strength": -8.262586, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.603851, "energy": 11.542999, "activity_lines": [ 4.491333, 4.528364, 4.470667, 4.427312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.63, "volume": 6146765, "typical_volume": 9460833.2, "trend": 4.363333, "fair_value": 3.480641, "relative_strength": -6.996301, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.324585, "energy": 17.660078, "activity_lines": [ 4.504667, 4.549273, 4.490286, 4.444538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }