{ "ticker": { "uuid": "841bed0e-e854-4397-add7-d45be102e6e2", "symbol": "002098", "name": "Fujian SBS Zipper Science&Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.15, "architecture_energy": 58.685, "architecture_maturity": 95.238, "architecture_confidence": 92.586, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 11.39, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 48.2, "downward_expansion": 82.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.534, 6.559411, 7.066656, 7.621286 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.71, "trend_reference": 8.407367, "distance_from_trend": -0.20189, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.722612, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.971489, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.363378, "excess_performance": -0.370777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108476, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273627, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019329, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363378, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.451422, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18511250, "relative_activity": 1.346389, "balance": 0.451422, "dry_up": 1.330546, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077583, "annualized_volatility": 0.251807, "from_high_reference": -0.444076, "from_low_reference": 0.107261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.407367, "fair_value_reference": 7.722612, "structural_low": 6.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.002432, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018263, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.105163, "worst_return": -0.183781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.07673, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.173996, "worst_return": -0.229621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.251273, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.262172, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.399882, "worst_return": 0.118033, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"energy": 69.380325, "activity_lines": [ 6.413519, 6.606538, 7.283665, 7.869957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.59, "volume": 13961900, "typical_volume": 13818081.55, "trend": 8.511034, "fair_value": 7.71734, "relative_strength": -25.2795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.173734, "energy": 63.769195, "activity_lines": [ 6.459755, 6.558883, 7.162565, 7.737481 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.71, "volume": 18511250, "typical_volume": 13748817.05, "trend": 8.407367, "fair_value": 7.722612, "relative_strength": -26.971489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.150107, "energy": 58.68517, "activity_lines": [ 6.534, 6.559411, 7.066656, 7.621286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }