{ "ticker": { "uuid": "841e8761-9259-44b5-ba72-b19a3508f50e", "symbol": "AGROUP", "name": "Arlandastad Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.752, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.009, "architecture_energy": 28.009, "architecture_maturity": 63.36, "architecture_confidence": 78.799, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.19, "rotation_up": 25.93, "upward_expansion": 15.22, "deceleration": 46.58, "rotation_down": 33.88, "downward_expansion": 62.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.046667, 36.729741, 37.513997, 38.728361 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.0, "trend_reference": 40.710162, "distance_from_trend": -0.066572, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.141698, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.711073, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161148, "excess_performance": -0.222642, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066572, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013653, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182265, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109551, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161148, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.284485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28708, "relative_activity": 1.03587, "balance": 1.284485, "dry_up": 1.560796, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060828, "annualized_volatility": 0.230545, "from_high_reference": -0.24, "from_low_reference": 0.324042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.710162, "fair_value_reference": 32.141698, "structural_low": 34.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.003672, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.028989, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.338583, "worst_return": -0.17033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007825, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067424, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.19685, "worst_return": -0.150838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.032895, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.045977, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.870079, "worst_return": -0.255814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014599, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086331, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118577, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106628, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", 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41.283496, "fair_value": 32.116698, "relative_strength": -9.559551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.913936, "energy": 71.652357, "activity_lines": [ 36.359051, 37.112158, 38.423137, 39.870984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.0, "volume": 50147, "typical_volume": 34306.55, "trend": 41.253496, "fair_value": 32.109647, "relative_strength": -12.578385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.110215, "energy": 64.430158, "activity_lines": [ 35.857462, 36.62169, 37.969305, 39.465597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.799999, "volume": 33034, "typical_volume": 29056.9, "trend": 41.170162, "fair_value": 32.114775, "relative_strength": -9.6836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.664142, "energy": 46.50628, "activity_lines": [ 36.1, 36.52399, 37.734519, 39.178275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.200001, "volume": 61134, "typical_volume": 29846.25, "trend": 41.003496, "fair_value": 32.131442, "relative_strength": -9.974332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.417012, "energy": 38.910253, "activity_lines": [ 36.5, 36.528296, 37.568782, 38.922135 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.0, "volume": 28708, "typical_volume": 27713.9, "trend": 40.710162, "fair_value": 32.141698, "relative_strength": -9.711073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.008834, "energy": 28.009384, "activity_lines": [ 37.046667, 36.729741, 37.513997, 38.728361 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }