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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.745, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.863, "architecture_energy": 12.104, "architecture_maturity": 41.144, "architecture_confidence": 57.694, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.37, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 20.31, "deceleration": 42.02, "rotation_down": 25.27, "downward_expansion": 56.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 307.992662, 304.404328, 308.295071, 315.538536 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 332.809998, "trend_reference": 324.292092, "distance_from_trend": 0.026266, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 221.389358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.503279, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.020648, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.050492, "excess_performance": -0.06993, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026266, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.503279, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005632, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050492, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.095886, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1745700, "relative_activity": 1.28013, "balance": 1.095886, "dry_up": 1.30233, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061304, "annualized_volatility": 0.429364, "from_high_reference": -0.141304, "from_low_reference": 0.465035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 324.292092, "fair_value_reference": 221.389358, 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306.026548, 307.247983, 317.571757, 322.691562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 290.920013, "volume": 1260900, "typical_volume": 1412350.0, "trend": 323.435193, "fair_value": 218.357158, "relative_strength": -12.339405, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.670277, "energy": 48.664999, "activity_lines": [ 301.662007, 304.082574, 314.060273, 320.584605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 281.299988, "volume": 1697100, "typical_volume": 1402245.0, "trend": 323.086354, "fair_value": 218.954214, "relative_strength": -15.183753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.986081, "energy": 59.272565, "activity_lines": [ 294.962669, 299.458288, 309.941731, 317.866205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 303.119995, "volume": 1790200, "typical_volume": 1390110.0, "trend": 323.371003, "fair_value": 219.708969, "relative_strength": -8.968511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.990976, "energy": 46.160385, "activity_lines": [ 296.338666, 299.447477, 308.374179, 316.578053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 298.23999, "volume": 1870900, "typical_volume": 1393530.0, "trend": 323.79149, "fair_value": 220.452823, "relative_strength": -10.118216, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.512975, "energy": 48.261179, "activity_lines": [ 296.167995, 298.663152, 306.575934, 314.956697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 332.809998, "volume": 1745700, "typical_volume": 1363690.0, "trend": 324.292092, "fair_value": 221.389358, "relative_strength": -3.020648, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.863461, "energy": 12.103693, "activity_lines": [ 307.992662, 304.404328, 308.295071, 315.538536 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }