{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84219adc-611d-4684-a3a3-f4ab336c5efc", "symbol": "BLBD", "name": "Blue Bird Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.421, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.534, "architecture_energy": 25.517, "architecture_maturity": 80.717, "architecture_confidence": 79.102, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.91, "rotation_up": 34.13, "upward_expansion": 65.1, "deceleration": 84.97, "rotation_down": 29.27, "downward_expansion": 17.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.601333, 74.722545, 72.470333, 69.150086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 68.76, "trend_reference": 64.503, "distance_from_trend": 0.065997, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.716058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.537703, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.000512, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.16129, "excess_performance": -0.026163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065997, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.537703, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010005, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119965, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16129, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.125673, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3481290, "relative_activity": 1.626148, "balance": 1.125673, "dry_up": 1.170354, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096139, "annualized_volatility": 0.351847, "from_high_reference": -0.175441, "from_low_reference": 0.490247 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.503, "fair_value_reference": 44.716058, "structural_low": 51.69, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.019838, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.011855, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.605534, "worst_return": -0.180037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.186834, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.07365, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.504421, "worst_return": -0.196303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.239556, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.006466, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.870981, "worst_return": -0.102685, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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66.390009, "energy": 64.468863, "activity_lines": [ 75.358, 72.826182, 68.469429, 64.966301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 77.38, "volume": 1753435, "typical_volume": 2025844.4, "trend": 61.168333, "fair_value": 43.346314, "relative_strength": 15.491285, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.813545, "energy": 68.890026, "activity_lines": [ 76.478, 73.987455, 69.675571, 66.070323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 78.34, "volume": 1439249, "typical_volume": 1994929.6, "trend": 62.055667, "fair_value": 43.710481, "relative_strength": 21.085853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.081405, "energy": 68.041869, "activity_lines": [ 77.404667, 75.059455, 70.895143, 67.178172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.2, "volume": 2779725, "typical_volume": 2036649.35, "trend": 62.904333, "fair_value": 44.065096, "relative_strength": 18.957184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.72828, "energy": 48.568411, "activity_lines": [ 77.164667, 75.609273, 71.815333, 68.09071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.39, "volume": 2321799, "typical_volume": 2068005.5, "trend": 63.825333, "fair_value": 44.410545, "relative_strength": 14.798671, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.681114, "energy": 41.440691, "activity_lines": [ 76.174, 75.751273, 72.460952, 68.83172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.76, "volume": 3481290, "typical_volume": 2140819.3, "trend": 64.503, "fair_value": 44.716058, "relative_strength": 1.000512, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.533653, "energy": 25.516596, "activity_lines": [ 73.601333, 74.722545, 72.470333, 69.150086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }