{ "ticker": { "uuid": "842984b9-b135-474c-b29d-f8638e611470", "symbol": "ACUVI", "name": "Acuvi AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.925, "architecture_energy": 26.419, "architecture_maturity": 26.444, "architecture_confidence": 89.647, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.87, "rotation_up": 24.31, "upward_expansion": 8.77, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 45.38, "downward_expansion": 70.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.705333, 11.788727, 12.016571, 12.135914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.3, "trend_reference": 12.484667, "distance_from_trend": -0.09489, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.471119, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219134, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.488624, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.183526, "excess_performance": -0.24502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09489, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16388, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219134, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013172, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.414886, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018673, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.838096, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112723, "relative_activity": 0.334197, "balance": 1.838096, "dry_up": 0.239052, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107148, "annualized_volatility": 0.5483, "from_high_reference": -0.631321, "from_low_reference": 0.06403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.484667, "fair_value_reference": 14.471119, "structural_low": 10.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020089, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.059208, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.548065, "worst_return": -0.191906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082094, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.082117, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.697878, "worst_return": -0.42624, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.170886, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.177971, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.034956, "worst_return": -0.490209, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.07183, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059686, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.268987, "worst_return": -0.125326, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.280316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.179775, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.172023, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107438, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.09697, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089873, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.212245, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09867, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.273634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.116492, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087237, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.38, "volume": 228568, "typical_volume": 224270.55, "trend": 15.016667, "fair_value": 34.400321, "relative_strength": -30.465656, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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70854, "typical_volume": 339393.2, "trend": 12.81, "fair_value": 14.517401, "relative_strength": -39.049258, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.141294, "energy": 29.719592, "activity_lines": [ 11.809333, 11.970545, 12.12381, 12.277591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.96, "volume": 72375, "typical_volume": 338256.15, "trend": 12.646, "fair_value": 14.491119, "relative_strength": -37.545122, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.330404, "energy": 21.958553, "activity_lines": [ 11.889333, 11.94, 12.102, 12.222753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.3, "volume": 112723, "typical_volume": 337295.55, "trend": 12.484667, "fair_value": 14.471119, "relative_strength": -41.488624, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.924776, "energy": 26.418603, "activity_lines": [ 11.705333, 11.788727, 12.016571, 12.135914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }