{ "ticker": { "uuid": "842b1609-e025-4426-8168-356879bdacf8", "symbol": "603185", "name": "Hongyuan Green Energy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.243, "architecture_energy": 60.764, "architecture_maturity": 94.127, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 28.51, "upward_expansion": 11.24, "deceleration": 60.65, "rotation_down": 53.21, "downward_expansion": 84.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.23, 15.33604, 17.110864, 18.944089 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.540001, "trend_reference": 21.544967, "distance_from_trend": -0.232303, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.017407, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.281413, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.518341, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.405036, "excess_performance": -0.361832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.232303, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190803, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.281413, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111095, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.285183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148375, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.405036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.456855, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88850479, "relative_activity": 1.20315, "balance": 0.456855, "dry_up": 1.097365, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109002, "annualized_volatility": 0.467656, "from_high_reference": -0.570278, "from_low_reference": 0.324259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.544967, "fair_value_reference": 23.017407, "structural_low": 12.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.056659, "positive_rate": 0.297297, "directional_follow_through": 0.702703, "median_excess_return": -0.033945, "regime_survival": 0.918919, "best_return": 0.4963, "worst_return": -0.23166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.176947, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.148345, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 1.192595, "worst_return": -0.443854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.194495, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.237409, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.64745, "worst_return": -0.462999, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.452522, "energy": 88.221762, "activity_lines": [ 15.704477, 16.828144, 19.145321, 21.004339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.2, "volume": 64326566, "typical_volume": 75769804.55, "trend": 23.040967, "fair_value": 23.668255, "relative_strength": -41.117755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.157302, "energy": 92.194306, "activity_lines": [ 14.719333, 15.955707, 18.404278, 20.334728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.41, "volume": 80565878, "typical_volume": 75942057.25, "trend": 22.533634, "fair_value": 23.441607, "relative_strength": -40.64844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.012249, "energy": 84.435202, "activity_lines": [ 14.086, 15.272791, 17.74133, 19.713376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.08, "volume": 90410798, "typical_volume": 74247634.75, "trend": 22.010301, "fair_value": 23.220264, "relative_strength": -28.880083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.32901, "energy": 66.168613, "activity_lines": [ 14.587333, 15.222127, 17.382145, 19.297012 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.540001, "volume": 88850479, "typical_volume": 73848204.9, "trend": 21.544967, "fair_value": 23.017407, "relative_strength": -28.518341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.24279, "energy": 60.764025, "activity_lines": [ 15.23, 15.33604, 17.110864, 18.944089 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }