{ "ticker": { "uuid": "842f045e-b5b1-49d1-9e7d-26c6bfdb2ea4", "symbol": "FNRN", "name": "First Northern Community Bancorp Common stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.977, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.863, "architecture_energy": 25.725, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.427, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.76, "rotation_up": 36.51, "upward_expansion": 67.8, "deceleration": 82.29, "rotation_down": 29.51, "downward_expansion": 17.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.748, 17.884545, 17.636714, 17.010227 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.59, "trend_reference": 16.027413, "distance_from_trend": 0.035102, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.580979, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.567908, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.413946, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.214749, "excess_performance": 0.027295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035102, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12082, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.567908, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014139, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184112, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.214749, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.535405, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 409064, "relative_activity": 0.640379, "balance": 1.535405, "dry_up": 1.029166, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057889, "annualized_volatility": 0.283464, "from_high_reference": -0.138182, "from_low_reference": 0.55949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.027413, "fair_value_reference": 10.580979, "structural_low": 13.361905, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.023174, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004164, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.137441, "worst_return": -0.075255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.038365, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026757, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.232227, "worst_return": -0.148871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.178889, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.028097, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.305835, "worst_return": -0.07644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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18.098667, 17.948727, 17.380524, 16.613242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.3, "volume": 522024, "typical_volume": 578072.95, "trend": 15.710603, "fair_value": 10.460179, "relative_strength": 19.457228, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.800068, "energy": 50.080672, "activity_lines": [ 18.171333, 18.038182, 17.537524, 16.792189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.4, "volume": 835941, "typical_volume": 618424.45, "trend": 15.89981, "fair_value": 10.526962, "relative_strength": 18.646857, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.509867, "energy": 52.225984, "activity_lines": [ 18.284, 18.134727, 17.683571, 16.965699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.59, "volume": 409064, "typical_volume": 638784.6, "trend": 16.027413, "fair_value": 10.580979, "relative_strength": 1.413946, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.86298, "energy": 25.72516, "activity_lines": [ 17.748, 17.884545, 17.636714, 17.010227 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }