{ "ticker": { "uuid": "843199aa-7998-41fa-8b5b-1e68e36365c6", "symbol": "300486", "name": "OMH SCIENCE Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.415, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.714, "architecture_energy": 53.546, "architecture_maturity": 13.555, "architecture_confidence": 81.423, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.44, "rotation_up": 13.28, "upward_expansion": 8.87, "deceleration": 44.65, "rotation_down": 67.82, "downward_expansion": 84.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.500669, 19.276878, 21.019202, 21.869369 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.43, "trend_reference": 22.56048, "distance_from_trend": -0.094434, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.80208, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.731051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.160297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.178858, "excess_performance": -0.186258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094434, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010679, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.731051, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.465373, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16425, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178858, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.93267, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65816535, "relative_activity": 1.135565, "balance": 0.93267, "dry_up": 1.09399, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149837, "annualized_volatility": 0.64326, "from_high_reference": -0.29308, "from_low_reference": 0.337917 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.56048, "fair_value_reference": 11.80208, "structural_low": 15.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.018443, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.00248, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.165239, "worst_return": -0.166425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.047295, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063366, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.13253, "worst_return": -0.212272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.129301, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016255, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.52259, "worst_return": -0.274368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073134, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162659, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.589396, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 19.810038, "volume": 82303000, "typical_volume": 63804261.15, "trend": 22.86148, "fair_value": 11.574933, "relative_strength": -15.59743, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.72132, "energy": 59.030519, "activity_lines": [ 20.43759, 21.913017, 22.833429, 23.041213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.629999, "volume": 60463940, "typical_volume": 63437179.9, "trend": 22.849147, "fair_value": 11.631745, "relative_strength": -13.507341, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.527015, "energy": 74.418055, "activity_lines": [ 19.713296, 21.1833, 22.373027, 22.768214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.51, "volume": 69107528, "typical_volume": 61897869.65, "trend": 22.679814, "fair_value": 11.677528, "relative_strength": -24.061772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.114908, "energy": 79.33516, "activity_lines": [ 18.507746, 20.160129, 21.737244, 22.359237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.190001, "volume": 58239539, "typical_volume": 60892965.25, "trend": 22.533147, "fair_value": 11.728041, "relative_strength": -20.198095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.001075, "energy": 76.893614, "activity_lines": [ 17.875624, 19.370231, 21.20708, 22.005056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.43, "volume": 65816535, "typical_volume": 57959271.55, "trend": 22.56048, "fair_value": 11.80208, "relative_strength": -10.160297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.713609, "energy": 53.54602, "activity_lines": [ 18.500669, 19.276878, 21.019202, 21.869369 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }