{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84394905-87bb-41b1-8d1f-ec5ff980c0fb", "symbol": "8916", "name": "Kwong Lung Enterprise Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.016, "architecture_energy": 53.281, "architecture_maturity": 75.261, "architecture_confidence": 87.031, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.62, "rotation_up": 25.0, "upward_expansion": 8.84, "deceleration": 58.84, "rotation_down": 48.78, "downward_expansion": 77.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.896867, 40.06814, 41.010624, 41.814178 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.299999, "trend_reference": 42.890585, "distance_from_trend": -0.0604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.215117, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127991, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.906722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.111879, "excess_performance": -0.553251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041265, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127991, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064596, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.359067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002783, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111879, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72568, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1020779, "relative_activity": 1.65464, "balance": 0.72568, "dry_up": 1.337894, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029369, "annualized_volatility": 0.111273, "from_high_reference": -0.15019, "from_low_reference": 0.062263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.890585, "fair_value_reference": 46.215117, "structural_low": 37.937885, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.001056, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.020863, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.082061, "worst_return": -0.050686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020579, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.157807, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.047788, "worst_return": -0.046462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.020374, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018746, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.061488, "worst_return": -0.086726, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 39.844074, "volume": 512160, "typical_volume": 565913.35, "trend": 43.786641, "fair_value": 46.271762, "relative_strength": -35.505064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.468974, "energy": 72.536101, "activity_lines": [ 40.37719, 40.911713, 42.040737, 42.759607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.007214, "volume": 1459620, "typical_volume": 611515.3, "trend": 43.524733, "fair_value": 46.251799, "relative_strength": -37.472165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.172471, "energy": 68.514091, "activity_lines": [ 39.88437, 40.465386, 41.678981, 42.451256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.844074, "volume": 367004, "typical_volume": 588061.9, "trend": 43.300019, "fair_value": 46.234282, "relative_strength": -34.494056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.327781, "energy": 59.869443, "activity_lines": [ 39.81618, 40.249829, 41.420837, 42.213795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.890572, "volume": 454086, "typical_volume": 585285.05, "trend": 43.084604, "fair_value": 46.222901, "relative_strength": -35.207356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.885082, "energy": 58.619754, "activity_lines": [ 39.760391, 40.104435, 41.185496, 41.99383 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 40.299999, "volume": 1020779, "typical_volume": 616919.1, "trend": 42.890585, "fair_value": 46.215117, "relative_strength": -35.906722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.016052, "energy": 53.281052, "activity_lines": [ 39.896867, 40.06814, 41.010624, 41.814178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }