{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8439e950-77e9-4656-a0ae-dbce38fbedc8", "symbol": "OSB", "name": "OSB Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.835, "architecture_energy": 16.549, "architecture_maturity": 11.563, "architecture_confidence": 42.693, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.77, "rotation_up": 40.98, "upward_expansion": 39.67, "deceleration": 29.8, "rotation_down": 24.34, "downward_expansion": 43.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 544.833333, 542.663636, 533.000809, 537.208741 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 520.5, "trend_reference": 551.29703, "distance_from_trend": -0.055863, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 465.993754, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116968, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.094622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136431, "excess_performance": -0.187666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055863, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032148, "read": "Falling" 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479.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013278, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.022915, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.099214, "worst_return": -0.210999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.058209, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045592, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169085, "worst_return": -0.190001, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.051389, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019776, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.322515, "worst_return": -0.29757, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 556.5, "volume": 1659196, "typical_volume": 4063722.3, "trend": 554.937657, "fair_value": 465.175839, "relative_strength": -8.295699, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.346503, "energy": 49.378021, "activity_lines": [ 555.8, 545.445455, 533.902382, 539.430526 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 520.5, "volume": 6666213, "typical_volume": 3984007.75, "trend": 551.29703, "fair_value": 465.993754, "relative_strength": -14.094622, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.834618, "energy": 16.549091, "activity_lines": [ 544.833333, 542.663636, 533.000809, 537.208741 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }