{ "ticker": { "uuid": "843af161-95e4-4fe5-a1a8-36e1a2310409", "symbol": "ACES", "name": "ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.731, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.022, "architecture_energy": 66.541, "architecture_maturity": 7.596, "architecture_confidence": 82.184, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.68, "rotation_up": 9.02, "upward_expansion": 14.04, "deceleration": 38.3, "rotation_down": 74.16, "downward_expansion": 89.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.609333, 32.765637, 34.612666, 34.717638 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.43, "trend_reference": 34.868976, "distance_from_trend": -0.069947, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.264674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071546, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.589181, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097665, "excess_performance": -0.22329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069947, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006405, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071546, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145892, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192381, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097665, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705031, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 392445, "relative_activity": 0.924996, "balance": 0.705031, "dry_up": 0.890576, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087379, "annualized_volatility": 0.290904, "from_high_reference": -0.24541, "from_low_reference": 0.207979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.868976, "fair_value_reference": 30.264674, "structural_low": 29.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.004199, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.024669, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.219492, "worst_return": -0.226968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.023444, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.089229, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.213688, "worst_return": -0.187714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.095609, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.131099, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.270557, "worst_return": -0.213386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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35.177446, "fair_value": 30.683679, "relative_strength": -6.980763, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.795176, "energy": 20.418459, "activity_lines": [ 35.434668, 36.810596, 36.242609, 35.761135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.27, "volume": 809383, "typical_volume": 500326.65, "trend": 35.179421, "fair_value": 30.599297, "relative_strength": -10.550548, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.04073, "energy": 27.078674, "activity_lines": [ 34.484015, 36.088105, 36.038191, 35.638074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.54, "volume": 238166, "typical_volume": 474570.65, "trend": 35.144352, "fair_value": 30.506367, "relative_strength": -11.081419, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.59327, "energy": 35.913455, "activity_lines": [ 33.612667, 35.276903, 35.774157, 35.467789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.56, "volume": 255574, "typical_volume": 478432.35, "trend": 35.037288, "fair_value": 30.406796, "relative_strength": -15.86891, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.760892, "energy": 58.097711, "activity_lines": [ 32.371333, 34.187159, 35.321756, 35.172024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.49, "volume": 625182, "typical_volume": 437077.45, "trend": 34.925697, "fair_value": 30.322872, "relative_strength": -16.902465, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.956411, "energy": 74.369163, "activity_lines": [ 31.532, 33.221588, 34.868848, 34.878651 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.43, "volume": 392445, "typical_volume": 424266.75, "trend": 34.868976, "fair_value": 30.264674, "relative_strength": -14.589181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.022035, "energy": 66.541167, "activity_lines": [ 31.609333, 32.765637, 34.612666, 34.717638 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }