{ "ticker": { "uuid": "843b9bdd-dac5-4a9c-97cf-6831206e7c7e", "symbol": "PFLT", "name": "PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.436, "architecture_energy": 49.02, "architecture_maturity": 29.309, "architecture_confidence": 93.994, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.85, "rotation_up": 20.49, "upward_expansion": 7.06, "deceleration": 55.08, "rotation_down": 60.15, "downward_expansion": 82.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.1692, 7.235297, 7.587956, 7.742354 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.52, "trend_reference": 7.982722, "distance_from_trend": -0.057965, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.584913, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.124045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.841868, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161245, "excess_performance": -0.28687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057965, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048425, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.124045, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139356, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084509, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.474506, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5741073, "relative_activity": 1.051005, "balance": 0.474506, "dry_up": 1.090166, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058905, "annualized_volatility": 0.29558, "from_high_reference": -0.196836, "from_low_reference": 0.101025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.982722, "fair_value_reference": 8.584913, "structural_low": 6.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.04105, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.006453, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.116744, "worst_return": -0.019994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.132644, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.035032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164782, "worst_return": 0.007909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.082424, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.025611, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.122127, "worst_return": -0.066638, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -77.641607, "energy": 81.337756, "activity_lines": [ 7.308611, 7.578249, 7.874041, 7.992877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.25, "volume": 5722230, "typical_volume": 5333024.25, "trend": 8.146645, "fair_value": 8.599601, "relative_strength": -20.684613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.035714, "energy": 75.530428, "activity_lines": [ 7.257412, 7.473175, 7.80777, 7.932507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.86, "volume": 7452931, "typical_volume": 5464765.55, "trend": 8.090829, "fair_value": 8.59255, "relative_strength": -23.82596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.963435, "energy": 77.771426, "activity_lines": [ 7.113461, 7.323918, 7.706908, 7.849498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.94, "volume": 4903731, "typical_volume": 5438204.55, "trend": 8.029907, "fair_value": 8.585468, "relative_strength": -23.087666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.501924, "energy": 76.566619, "activity_lines": [ 7.032037, 7.217026, 7.61789, 7.775251 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.52, "volume": 5741073, "typical_volume": 5462461.65, "trend": 7.982722, "fair_value": 8.584913, "relative_strength": -18.841868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.435761, "energy": 49.020254, "activity_lines": [ 7.1692, 7.235297, 7.587956, 7.742354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }