{ "ticker": { "uuid": "843eaf7c-7d06-4bb9-8dd9-c25133486482", "symbol": "NEWT", "name": "NewtekOne, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.026, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.56, "architecture_energy": 31.635, "architecture_maturity": 50.341, "architecture_confidence": 55.841, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.76, "rotation_up": 45.83, "upward_expansion": 67.06, "deceleration": 59.8, "rotation_down": 22.69, "downward_expansion": 14.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.362667, 14.369885, 13.922333, 13.480541 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.53, "trend_reference": 13.140624, "distance_from_trend": 0.029631, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.627265, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.163644, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.86435, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012858, "excess_performance": -0.200311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029631, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088397, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.163644, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053158, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028644, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058268, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012858, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.033086, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1526802, "relative_activity": 1.445309, "balance": 1.033086, "dry_up": 1.016764, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084808, "annualized_volatility": 0.425755, "from_high_reference": -0.137667, "from_low_reference": 0.45835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.140624, "fair_value_reference": 11.627265, "structural_low": 10.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.073193, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.08374, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.119691, "worst_return": -0.266853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039099, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.10002, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.051747, "worst_return": -0.204866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.097358, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.198448, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056823, "worst_return": -0.316463, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"up", "direction": 68.302087, "energy": 67.849679, "activity_lines": [ 14.40443, 13.961749, 13.362828, 13.082466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.2, "volume": 885047, "typical_volume": 1055744.15, "trend": 12.900722, "fair_value": 11.646488, "relative_strength": 13.807963, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.3612, "energy": 76.498992, "activity_lines": [ 14.763573, 14.231614, 13.590711, 13.23805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.43, "volume": 952628, "typical_volume": 1054039.3, "trend": 13.005473, "fair_value": 11.641508, "relative_strength": 9.646597, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.042251, "energy": 64.445715, "activity_lines": [ 14.741333, 14.341124, 13.730375, 13.336713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.83, "volume": 931898, "typical_volume": 1053443.05, "trend": 13.125196, "fair_value": 11.636719, "relative_strength": 11.817964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.119758, "energy": 59.665624, "activity_lines": [ 14.773333, 14.488483, 13.895979, 13.454425 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.53, "volume": 1526802, "typical_volume": 1056384.3, "trend": 13.140624, "fair_value": 11.627265, "relative_strength": -2.86435, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.559511, "energy": 31.634619, "activity_lines": [ 14.362667, 14.369885, 13.922333, 13.480541 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }