{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84557f3d-174b-43bf-bdb7-0dfc62b3e182", "symbol": "002886", "name": "Shenzhen WOTE Advanced Materials Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.601, "architecture_energy": 67.325, "architecture_maturity": 21.678, "architecture_confidence": 69.16, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.65, "rotation_up": 16.03, "upward_expansion": 22.9, "deceleration": 43.51, "rotation_down": 72.05, "downward_expansion": 62.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.622, 21.652545, 23.698325, 23.709639 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.629999, "trend_reference": 23.678338, "distance_from_trend": -0.170972, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.823516, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042844, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.514298, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.147526, "excess_performance": -0.154926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170972, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057149, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042844, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.147526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.838759, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47901722, "relative_activity": 0.948773, "balance": 1.838759, "dry_up": 1.018792, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179672, "annualized_volatility": 0.629901, "from_high_reference": -0.435108, "from_low_reference": 0.266452 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.678338, "fair_value_reference": 18.823516, "structural_low": 15.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052039, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028348, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.111566, "worst_return": -0.185289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02704, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015942, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199079, "worst_return": -0.107542, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.066001, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.085836, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.406082, "worst_return": -0.182866, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057809, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.228395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034799, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089518, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.18219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075273, 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25.895554, 25.430169, 24.806282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.450001, "volume": 59896443, "typical_volume": 51146951.75, "trend": 23.843513, "fair_value": 18.82445, "relative_strength": -22.686267, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.179252, "energy": 46.337779, "activity_lines": [ 20.852, 24.167818, 24.75673, 24.38961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.42, "volume": 43825846, "typical_volume": 51207320.05, "trend": 23.746033, "fair_value": 18.815337, "relative_strength": -21.30628, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.234524, "energy": 56.094959, "activity_lines": [ 18.986667, 22.613273, 24.108132, 23.97519 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.629999, "volume": 47901722, "typical_volume": 50488099.2, "trend": 23.678338, "fair_value": 18.823516, "relative_strength": -15.514298, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.601347, "energy": 67.325428, "activity_lines": [ 18.622, 21.652545, 23.698325, 23.709639 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }