{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84571fac-241f-45cb-897b-8b2c62c39b12", "symbol": "SMC2", "name": "SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.009, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.952, "architecture_energy": 17.045, "architecture_maturity": 11.583, "architecture_confidence": 55.194, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.0, "rotation_up": 18.63, "upward_expansion": 14.21, "deceleration": 67.03, "rotation_down": 52.13, "downward_expansion": 41.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.905333, 25.274909, 26.754833, 26.39457 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.959999, "trend_reference": 26.2265, "distance_from_trend": -0.010162, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.428802, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.199477, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.658357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0961, "excess_performance": -0.270347, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010162, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020077, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.199477, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.306584, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053593, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0961, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.619858, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12715, "relative_activity": 1.135364, "balance": 3.619858, "dry_up": 1.417241, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175833, "annualized_volatility": 1.042978, "from_high_reference": -0.488775, "from_low_reference": 0.546619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.2265, "fair_value_reference": 32.428802, "structural_low": 16.785, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.003723, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.071773, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.003723, "worst_return": -0.003723, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.22963, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127327, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078539, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000747, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", 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"relative_strength": -44.659128, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.642247, "energy": 35.135988, "activity_lines": [ 24.032, 26.756364, 26.864476, 26.526409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.74, "volume": 25582, "typical_volume": 10998.0, "trend": 26.310833, "fair_value": 32.586436, "relative_strength": -29.209623, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.564286, "energy": 23.993769, "activity_lines": [ 24.644, 26.432, 26.930738, 26.555731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.08, "volume": 15761, "typical_volume": 11298.15, "trend": 26.227167, "fair_value": 32.496895, "relative_strength": -34.70344, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.727488, "energy": 21.523521, "activity_lines": [ 24.350667, 25.626182, 26.747238, 26.411806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.959999, "volume": 12715, "typical_volume": 11199.05, "trend": 26.2265, "fair_value": 32.428802, "relative_strength": -30.658357, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.95197, "energy": 17.044805, "activity_lines": [ 24.905333, 25.274909, 26.754833, 26.39457 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }