{ "ticker": { "uuid": "845c0c81-ef82-4669-b99f-708b095256fb", "symbol": "FMONC", "name": "Financi\u00e8re Moncey Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.283, "architecture_energy": 35.348, "architecture_maturity": 9.296, "architecture_confidence": 59.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.05, "rotation_up": 28.45, "upward_expansion": 18.47, "deceleration": 42.24, "rotation_down": 52.61, "downward_expansion": 53.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.5, 129.087461, 130.802781, 131.525894 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 122.0, "trend_reference": 130.648189, "distance_from_trend": -0.066194, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 107.907301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1306, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.820839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033898, "excess_performance": -0.019413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066194, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026896, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153102, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088208, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16452, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033898, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.619469, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2112, "relative_activity": 1.784764, "balance": 0.619469, "dry_up": 1.390333, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060932, "annualized_volatility": 0.293119, "from_high_reference": -0.227848, "from_low_reference": 0.124424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 130.648189, "fair_value_reference": 107.907301, "structural_low": 108.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.00641, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01621, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.128755, "worst_return": -0.154362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.059274, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.073173, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.139181, "worst_return": -0.161074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035874, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.075462, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180328, "worst_return": -0.177369, "sufficient": true }, 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133.374442, 133.810293, 131.197266 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 128.723221, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 1763.4, "trend": 127.890998, "fair_value": 105.194537, "relative_strength": 0.444392, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.906675, "energy": 10.625878, "activity_lines": [ 130.319787, 132.087633, 133.560092, 131.261116 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 132.215714, "volume": 543, "typical_volume": 1587.2, "trend": 128.264855, "fair_value": 105.558023, "relative_strength": 2.267499, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.645205, "energy": 9.54149, "activity_lines": [ 130.818716, 131.586309, 133.608113, 131.54013 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 128.5, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 1527.9, "trend": 128.481522, "fair_value": 105.881768, "relative_strength": -0.174595, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.303368, "energy": 12.691109, "activity_lines": [ 130.112334, 130.741842, 133.241705, 131.5553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 127.5, "volume": 81, "typical_volume": 1497.05, "trend": 128.831522, "fair_value": 106.202287, "relative_strength": -2.303572, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.880715, "energy": 18.324076, "activity_lines": [ 129.154024, 129.988285, 132.730059, 131.491976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 134.5, "volume": 975, "typical_volume": 1473.65, "trend": 129.381522, "fair_value": 106.574046, "relative_strength": 5.010823, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.367517, "energy": 12.868708, "activity_lines": [ 130.743643, 130.674838, 132.832698, 131.857684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 138.5, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 1170.45, "trend": 130.098189, "fair_value": 106.965078, "relative_strength": 7.947103, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.098651, "energy": 20.847632, "activity_lines": [ 133.481048, 132.056202, 133.242481, 132.445973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 129.0, "volume": 1822, "typical_volume": 1091.8, "trend": 130.531522, "fair_value": 107.301582, "relative_strength": 0.113446, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.625992, "energy": 11.05639, "activity_lines": [ 132.4, 131.605104, 132.71893, 132.375122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 126.0, "volume": 1247, "typical_volume": 1130.25, "trend": 130.631522, "fair_value": 107.61567, "relative_strength": -3.709224, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.810362, "energy": 13.470556, "activity_lines": [ 130.533333, 130.676091, 131.938236, 132.082766 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 122.0, "volume": 2112, "typical_volume": 1183.35, "trend": 130.648189, "fair_value": 107.907301, "relative_strength": -8.820839, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.282584, "energy": 35.348253, "activity_lines": [ 127.5, 129.087461, 130.802781, 131.525894 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }