{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "845e6545-033d-4c25-8b62-61e3f4dceeaf",
    "symbol": "NRG",
    "name": "NRJ Group SA",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -74.767,
    "architecture_energy": 55.421,
    "architecture_maturity": 20.83,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.736,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 27.36,
        "rotation_up": 14.11,
        "upward_expansion": 11.3,
        "deceleration": 38.08,
        "rotation_down": 69.78,
        "downward_expansion": 84.63
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        6.710667,
        6.789455,
        6.81545,
        6.83451
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 6.5,
    "trend_reference": 6.917609,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.060369,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 7.047219,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07765,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -16.926411,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.060694,
    "excess_performance": -0.114005,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.060369,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05311,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.07765,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023007,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.169264,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.047477,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.060694,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.130197,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 67813,
      "relative_activity": 1.899207,
      "balance": 1.130197,
      "dry_up": 1.172585,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031029,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.172423,
      "from_high_reference": -0.235294,
      "from_low_reference": 0.004907
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.917609,
      "fair_value_reference": 7.047219,
      "structural_low": 6.468261,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": -0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001908,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.114379,
        "worst_return": -0.048128,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.006536,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.056059,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.131498,
        "worst_return": -0.086162,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.019048,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.158518,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.189602,
        "worst_return": -0.086162,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.149102,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.068919,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.194497,
        "worst_return": 0.038081,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-10-20",
        "end": "2023-10-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-10-27",
        "end": "2023-11-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.118971,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-11-24",
        "end": "2023-12-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041056,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-15",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.129463,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.028721,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.037838,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.054441,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02965,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.026667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.032877,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.029412,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.031792,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.00565,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.063401,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 33952.75,
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        "relative_strength": -10.339375,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.60514,
        "energy": 64.606847,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 6.751956,
        "volume": 7971,
        "typical_volume": 43817.8,
        "trend": 7.480826,
        "fair_value": 6.999086,
        "relative_strength": -10.643178,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.664557,
        "energy": 52.712285,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 6.619565,
        "volume": 65595,
        "typical_volume": 44145.05,
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        "energy": 52.40499,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 6.77087,
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        "typical_volume": 45094.4,
        "trend": 7.387174,
        "fair_value": 7.006034,
        "relative_strength": -8.275827,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "direction": -48.651801,
        "energy": 41.837445,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 6.733044,
        "volume": 60121,
        "typical_volume": 46080.45,
        "trend": 7.342275,
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        "relative_strength": -10.407683,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -46.79158,
        "energy": 40.396928,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 6.96,
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        "typical_volume": 46753.55,
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        "relative_strength": -7.966015,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.922377,
        "energy": 29.205013,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 37098,
        "typical_volume": 40296.1,
        "trend": 7.281609,
        "fair_value": 7.020978,
        "relative_strength": -6.06525,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -17.477626,
        "energy": 17.489197,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 7.04,
        "volume": 959,
        "typical_volume": 37337.55,
        "trend": 7.248942,
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        "relative_strength": -8.371666,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": -10.168343,
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        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "direction": -7.173409,
        "energy": 19.127191,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 33264.4,
        "trend": 7.170275,
        "fair_value": 7.032219,
        "relative_strength": -10.564514,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -8.069114,
        "energy": 16.598644,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.958667,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 6.8,
        "volume": 15853,
        "typical_volume": 30648.4,
        "trend": 7.128942,
        "fair_value": 7.034475,
        "relative_strength": -12.345847,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -22.046656,
        "energy": 12.651531,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 46757,
        "typical_volume": 31308.2,
        "trend": 7.088942,
        "fair_value": 7.037105,
        "relative_strength": -9.819271,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -31.273609,
        "energy": 22.022054,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.86,
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          6.844084,
          6.905506
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 7.0,
        "volume": 49569,
        "typical_volume": 33270.25,
        "trend": 7.052942,
        "fair_value": 7.040997,
        "relative_strength": -7.504694,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -17.154869,
        "energy": 14.458986,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.894667,
          6.916672,
          6.858806,
          6.899768
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 6.76,
        "volume": 12554,
        "typical_volume": 32663.65,
        "trend": 7.011609,
        "fair_value": 7.043705,
        "relative_strength": -10.769002,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -44.292399,
        "energy": 25.012414,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.852,
          6.890055,
          6.851339,
          6.880868
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6.76,
        "volume": 37537,
        "typical_volume": 33489.4,
        "trend": 6.966942,
        "fair_value": 7.04665,
        "relative_strength": -11.910292,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.887753,
        "energy": 23.501121,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.821333,
          6.863636,
          6.845394,
          6.864635
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.5,
        "volume": 67813,
        "typical_volume": 35705.95,
        "trend": 6.917609,
        "fair_value": 7.047219,
        "relative_strength": -16.926411,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -74.766766,
        "energy": 55.421221,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.710667,
          6.789455,
          6.81545,
          6.83451
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}