{ "ticker": { "uuid": "84619ec9-53e8-4bad-8cf0-fa1cc50e78f5", "symbol": "CIN", "name": "Courage Investment Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.786, "architecture_energy": 65.011, "architecture_maturity": 25.763, "architecture_confidence": 88.461, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.06, "rotation_up": 12.78, "upward_expansion": 14.21, "deceleration": 37.89, "rotation_down": 71.46, "downward_expansion": 92.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.016133, 0.017145, 0.019105, 0.01974 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.016, "trend_reference": 0.020567, "distance_from_trend": -0.222042, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.017378, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.12022, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.111111, "excess_performance": -0.265946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.222042, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093979, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079307, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.798805, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.361202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.586311, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.962199, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8800, "relative_activity": 0.808081, "balance": 0.962199, "dry_up": 0.833333, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.216346, "annualized_volatility": 1.901768, "from_high_reference": -0.466667, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.020567, "fair_value_reference": 0.017378, "structural_low": 0.016, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.28, "median_excess_return": 0.071877, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 1.733333, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.105556, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.09575, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.066667, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.084487, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.222222, "worst_return": -0.566667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.207729, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.03447, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.666667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.555556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.304348, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.3125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.413793, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.01, "volume": 141000, "typical_volume": 80020.0, "trend": 0.0163, "fair_value": 0.027839, "relative_strength": -46.787108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.704397, "energy": 27.745079, "activity_lines": [ 0.011333, 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0.021738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.018, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10200.0, "trend": 0.0223, "fair_value": 0.017212, "relative_strength": -25.374409, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.796185, "energy": 25.829079, "activity_lines": [ 0.0194, 0.020473, 0.021233, 0.021454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.018, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10200.0, "trend": 0.022167, "fair_value": 0.017263, "relative_strength": -27.962041, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.74917, "energy": 49.770317, "activity_lines": [ 0.018667, 0.019873, 0.020933, 0.021176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.016, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 10005.0, "trend": 0.021767, "fair_value": 0.017301, "relative_strength": -35.928524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.666289, "energy": 55.242137, "activity_lines": [ 0.017267, 0.018891, 0.020448, 0.020778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.016, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10005.0, "trend": 0.021367, "fair_value": 0.01734, "relative_strength": -36.146576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.976402, "energy": 61.933719, "activity_lines": [ 0.0168, 0.018145, 0.019981, 0.020406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.016, "volume": 19500, "typical_volume": 10980.0, "trend": 0.020967, "fair_value": 0.017353, "relative_strength": -35.927926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.663989, "energy": 59.752753, "activity_lines": [ 0.0164, 0.017636, 0.019533, 0.02006 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.016, "volume": 8800, "typical_volume": 10890.0, "trend": 0.020567, "fair_value": 0.017378, "relative_strength": -36.12022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.786174, "energy": 65.011312, "activity_lines": [ 0.016133, 0.017145, 0.019105, 0.01974 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }