{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8462aa57-cd21-4b41-bf49-b19cb438d498", "symbol": "CGAU", "name": "Centerra Gold Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.207, "architecture_energy": 24.393, "architecture_maturity": 21.095, "architecture_confidence": 62.96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.68, "rotation_up": 54.56, "upward_expansion": 36.97, "deceleration": 37.34, "rotation_down": 21.22, "downward_expansion": 18.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.995333, 17.172727, 17.096058, 17.304921 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.24, "trend_reference": 17.513147, "distance_from_trend": 0.212803, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.966899, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.368712, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 27.541978, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.232832, "excess_performance": 0.107207, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.212803, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066187, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.368712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084401, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.27542, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049343, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.232832, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.410299, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8333973, "relative_activity": 1.070651, "balance": 1.410299, "dry_up": 1.012404, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100183, "annualized_volatility": 0.586506, "from_high_reference": -0.011173, "from_low_reference": 2.218933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.513147, "fair_value_reference": 8.966899, "structural_low": 14.69, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.037912, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05015, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056162, "worst_return": -0.120513, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.132833, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.081464, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245454, "worst_return": -0.063607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.102367, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.099765, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.707496, "worst_return": 0.039744, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"energy": 20.391172, "activity_lines": [ 16.328, 16.508317, 17.146376, 17.304755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.22, "volume": 7012011, "typical_volume": 8710955.3, "trend": 17.150608, "fair_value": 8.664503, "relative_strength": 4.233508, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.315361, "energy": 18.164576, "activity_lines": [ 16.351333, 16.411981, 17.012349, 17.24926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.09, "volume": 6856953, "typical_volume": 8619999.65, "trend": 17.172771, "fair_value": 8.724292, "relative_strength": -2.346218, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.556619, "energy": 38.897658, "activity_lines": [ 15.934667, 16.12832, 16.783647, 17.116318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.19, "volume": 5249022, "typical_volume": 8486244.6, "trend": 17.209729, "fair_value": 8.791899, "relative_strength": 4.382517, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.527256, "energy": 30.674449, "activity_lines": [ 15.954667, 16.103636, 16.687408, 17.052913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.19, "volume": 11082354, "typical_volume": 8700536.6, "trend": 17.314152, "fair_value": 8.866625, "relative_strength": 8.444551, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.867525, "energy": 19.51778, "activity_lines": [ 16.333333, 16.276545, 16.697933, 17.05164 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.24, "volume": 8333973, "typical_volume": 7784022.75, "trend": 17.513147, "fair_value": 8.966899, "relative_strength": 27.541978, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.20668, "energy": 24.393254, "activity_lines": [ 17.995333, 17.172727, 17.096058, 17.304921 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }