{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8464b347-31c3-428b-88b2-e4f456c21562", "symbol": "HLAG", "name": "Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.496, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.763, "architecture_energy": 56.8, "architecture_maturity": 10.029, "architecture_confidence": 66.157, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.88, "rotation_up": 70.74, "upward_expansion": 56.62, "deceleration": 15.1, "rotation_down": 14.52, "downward_expansion": 26.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 126.393333, 122.856363, 118.859569, 119.027884 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 125.099998, "trend_reference": 119.101064, "distance_from_trend": 0.050368, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 128.612995, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027314, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.551175, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071434, "excess_performance": 0.006794, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050368, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017358, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027314, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120854, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015512, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064723, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071434, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.864817, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49230, "relative_activity": 0.60026, "balance": 0.864817, "dry_up": 0.869043, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059201, "annualized_volatility": 0.43517, "from_high_reference": -0.194238, "from_low_reference": 0.180845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.101064, "fair_value_reference": 128.612995, "structural_low": 106.233498, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.086696, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.130089, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.141673, "worst_return": -0.144311, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.09904, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.270954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.045038, "worst_return": -0.283832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.112122, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.171366, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.065824, "worst_return": -0.308982, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-3.895363, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.745729, "energy": 11.94141, "activity_lines": [ 115.713333, 115.096761, 115.178476, 116.663502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 126.900002, "volume": 125917, "typical_volume": 101117.35, "trend": 117.958611, "fair_value": 129.405577, "relative_strength": 5.47697, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.672023, "energy": 29.702887, "activity_lines": [ 119.52, 117.349691, 116.020292, 117.275588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 130.5, "volume": 67187, "typical_volume": 94431.55, "trend": 118.579068, "fair_value": 129.106618, "relative_strength": 7.386481, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.190436, "energy": 54.97403, "activity_lines": [ 123.853333, 120.005455, 117.207263, 118.084709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 127.1, "volume": 42762, "typical_volume": 88016.9, "trend": 119.001724, "fair_value": 128.812, "relative_strength": 2.509564, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.405135, "energy": 56.18974, "activity_lines": [ 125.94, 121.741818, 118.101063, 118.634447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.099998, "volume": 49230, "typical_volume": 82014.4, "trend": 119.101064, "fair_value": 128.612995, "relative_strength": -1.551175, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.762649, "energy": 56.799796, "activity_lines": [ 126.393333, 122.856363, 118.859569, 119.027884 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }